Rare winter chill down towards week’s end

It appears the trend of above normal temperatures will come to end briefly by the end of this week.  It may come as a shock since we have been spoiled by the ridiculously nice winter we’ve had so far this season.  January was running some seven to ten degrees above normal across much of Minnesota, and finished as the eighth warmest in the Twin Cities since 1872.  Minneapolis-St. Paul averaged 23.3 degrees for the month, or 7.7 degrees above normal.  St. Cloud averaged 19.8 degrees, or 8.2 degrees above normal.

Across the Twin Cities, February has started off much the same way - mild.

Both the GFS and European models depict a low centered over Hudson Bay in Canada driving Arctic air south into the Upper Midwest by the weekend.  There is a pretty good likelihood that some parts of Minnesota, especially the Arrowhead Region, will see below zero readings at times between Friday and early Sunday.

GFS:

Euro:

This weather maker will NOT bring any snow along with it.  In fact, I don’t really see any significant snow for at least a week.  Winter sports lovers days may be numbered as average temperatures begin to climb as we head towards spring.  By the end of February, the average high temperature is 33 degrees - just beyond freezing.

RS

Winter with a touch of Spring

Late Sunday into Monday, we experienced the unfamiliar sight this season of snow. You know, the flakey, white stuff, remember it? While most of the Twin Cities saw one to three inches of snow from this last storm system, it was enough to make for a very slow morning commute on Monday. Freezing mist fell most of Sunday before transitioning to snow late in the day, creating a glazed layer of ice on roadways in addition to snow accumulations to create slippery conditions. At least 100 vehicle spin-outs were reported across the metro. Hopefully you were not one of them! 1.9 inches of snow was recorded officially, bringing our seasonal total up to 14.4 inches. This last snowfall also pushed us beyond the mark for the least amount of seasonal snow of 14.2 inches set in the Dust Bowl era of 1931-32. We should add on to the total as we head into February, and then the second-snowiest month, March. We are not completely out of the clear for January snow. Friday is appearing to be more active, as well as the middle part of the upcoming weekend. It is difficult to pin down exact totals right now, but it does appear to be enough to slow things down a bit for those doing some weekend traveling. Cannot rule out at least an inch or two of snow during each snow episode, but these are not shaping up to be major storms.

 

Once we get past the snow, temperatures will noticeably warm up starting Thursday. The first stretch of mild air will last through the weekend. It will be followed by another surge of southerly winds on Tuesday. High temperatures will be running a good 10 to 15 degrees above normal at times during the next seven days. Can someone remind me what season it is again? One thing is for sure, it has made for a very short winter thus far. Hard to believe it's almost February!

 

It goes along with the month we are having. Since the beginning of January, we have been above average for high temperatures an incredible 21 out of 25 days! Forget winter, we jumped from fall right into spring! Another sign spring is around the corner? Minnesota Twins pitchers and catchers will be reporting in Fort Myers, Florida for Spring Training on February 18th.

Enjoy "March-uary" or whatever term you would like to call January. Perhaps blogging about the weather has kept the snow away? If that is the case, I could make a lot of good friends that dislike snow very quickly. "Old Man Winter" has certainly been in hibernation this season.

RS

Snow totals for January 22 & 23

Here are the snow total reports from the snow late Sunday night into Monday morning.  Generally amounts ranged from one to four inches across the state.  As I highlighted the previous night, I did feel the heaviest snow band would set up along Interstate 35 from the Twin Cities, southward.  Amounts were generally a little higher than I thought they would be.  My thinking was that the severe thunderstorm activity across the mid-south would steal much of the available moisture here for snow.

Snow totals by location (inches of snow, city, county):

Official total highlighted in blue

• 3.8, MAPLEWOOD, RAMSEY
• 3.5, OWATONNA, STEELE
• 3.5, SW ELLENDALE, STEELE
• 3.5, OAK CENTER, WABASHA
• 3.4, NORTH ST PAUL, RAMSEY
• 3.3, ST PAUL, RAMSEY
• 3.2, ST CLOUD, STEARNS
• 3.0, ANNANDALE, WRIGHT
• 3.0, WINTHROP, SIBLEY
• 3.0, LITCHFIELD, MEEKER
• 3.0, GLENCOE, MCLEOD
• 3.0, MANKATO, BLUE EARTH
• 3.0, 3 SE ALBERT LEA, FREEBORN
• 3.0, ZUMBROTA, GOODHUE
• 3.0, MANTORVILLE, DODGE
• 2.8, HUTCHINSON, MCLEOD
• 2.8, E OWATONNA, STEELE
• 2.7, WABASHA 5S, WABASHA
• 2.6, WINONA , WINONA
• 2.5, 2 SSW CAMBRIDGE, ISANTI
• 2.5, MANKATO, BLUE EARTH
• 2.5, 3 SE NEW ULM, BROWN
• 2.5, 1 NNW SPRINGFIELD, BROWN
• 2.4, RICE, BENTON
• 2.4, NORTHFIELD, RICE
• 2.3, RUSH CITY, CHISAGO
• 2.1, MONTICELLO, WRIGHT
• 2.1, ST CLOUD, STEARNS
• 2.0, INVER GROVE HEIGHTS, DAKOTA
• 2.0, 8 NW MORA, KANABEC
• 2.0, LAKEVILLE, DAKOTA
• 2.0, HASTINGS, DAKOTA
• 2.0, 3 SW CARLOS, DOUGLAS
• 2.0, MADELIA, WATONWAN
• 2.0, 3 SE LAKE ELMO, WASHINGTON
• 2.0, ELK RIVER, SHERBURNE
• 2.0, 3 N KIMBALL, STEARNS
• 2.0, RED WING, GOODHUE
• 2.0, 1 NNW COLD SPRING, STEARNS
• 2.0, PETERSON 1S, FILLMORE
• 1.9, MINNEAPOLIS, HENNEPIN
• 1.8, ST PAUL, RAMSEY
• 1.8, 2 WNW LAKEVILLE, DAKOTA
• 1.5, LAKEVILLE, DAKOTA
• 1.5, WINNEBAGO, FARIBAULT
• 1.5, 1 S BLUE EARTH, FARIBAULT
• 1.5, 9 NNE BIRD ISLAND, RENVILLE
• 1.5, FAIRMONT, MARTIN
• 1.5, 3 SSW MINNEAPOLIS, HENNEPIN
• 1.3, 1 ENE MINNESOTA LAKE, FARIBAULT
• 1.3, 1 SW MINNEAPOLIS, HENNEPIN
• 1.3, MORRIS, STEVENS
• 1.3, MILACA, MILLE LACS
• 1.2, WACONIA, CARVER
• 1.2, NORTH MANKATO, NICOLLET
• 1.1, ST LOUIS PARK, HENNEPIN
• 1.1, ONAMIA, MILLE LACS
• 1.1, RICE, BENTON
• 1.1, REDWOOD FALLS, REDWOOD
• 1.0, BROOKLYN CENTER, HENNEPIN
• 1.0, VESTA MN REDWOOD
• 1.0, 3 N WATERTOWN, WRIGHT
• 1.0, 1 ENE ST MICHAEL, WRIGHT
• 1.0, 3 N CAMBRIDGE, ISANTI
• 1.0, LITTLE FALLS, MORRISON
• 0.8, CHANHASSEN, CARVER

The next snow maker is setting up for Monday.  As always, StormChaser Schwartz will be monitoring this develop storm over the upcoming days.

RS

Transition to snow overnight

Mist and freezing rain has been ongoing throughout the day on Sunday across much of Minnesota.  Across southeastern Minnesota, numerous accidents have been reported as roads are glazed over by a thin layer of ice.  Slowly, this rain is transitioning to snow as we head towards the midnight hour.

Snow bands will rotate around an area of low pressure across southern Minnesota during the morning hours.  While moisture content is meager, it will be enough to support one to two inches of snow across the Interstate 35 corridor from the Twin Cities to the Minnesota/Iowa border.

The morning commute will be slow with the snow on top of the layer of ice.  Give yourself plenty of time if you have to travel.

RS

Messy start to Sunday?

Temperatures will trend towards the freezing point by Sunday morning as southerly winds drive warmer air into the area.

With low pressure systems approaching and temps close to freezing, there is some concern the precipitation to begin the day could be a wintery mix of sleet, or even freezing rain.  A few of the models, such as the SREF, are hinting at sleet, while the GFS and RUC are indicating freezing rain.

SREF:

RUC:

The reason for the freezing rain is that we have a warm layer of air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere sandwiched between a cold layer in the upper-levels and at the surface.

For anyone commuting in the morning, you’ll want to use caution. The roads may turn into ice rinks for a brief time during the morning before the change over to all snow in the afternoon.  We’re still looking at about an inch to two inches of snow tomorrow for the Twin Cities with higher amounts across west-central and northwest Minnesota.

RS

Next week storm systems looking quiet for now

Friday’s snow came through during the first half of the day, and dropped generally one to two inches of snow across the Twin Cities. As expected, the heaviest amounts were seen along the Interstate 90 corridor in southern Minnesota, where as much as five inches of snow fell.  The snow ended a bit sooner than I thought, so that kept actuals down from my projections, but were still within the ranges assigned Friday for the most part.  Figuring precise totals will never be an exact science.

Snow totals by location (inches of snow, city, county):

• 5.0, GRAND MEADOW, MOWER
• 5.0, JACKSON, JACKSON
• 5.0, WORTHINGTON, NOBLES
• 4.6, ALBERT LEA, FREEBORN
• 4.5, COMFREY, BROWN
• 4.5, PRESTON, FILLMORE
• 4.5, LUVERNE, ROCK
• 4.2, FAIRMONT, MARTIN
• 4.0, LANESBORO, FILLMORE
• 4.0, LA CRESCENT DAM, WINONA
• 4.0, WINDOM, COTTONWOOD
• 4.0, IVANHOE, LINCOLN
• 3.8, MADELIA, WATONWAN
• 3.6, SPRING VALLEY 3E, FILLMORE
• 3.0, VESTA, REDWOOD
• 3.0, NEW ULM, BROWN
• 3.0, MANKATO, BLUE EARTH
• 3.0, SPRINGFIELD, BROWN
• 3.0, WINNEBAGO, FARIBAULT
• 3.0, WSW ST JAMES, WATONWAN
• 3.0, LAKE CITY, WABASHA
• 2.9, 1 ENE MINNESOTA LAKE, FARIBAULT
• 2.8, NE FAIRMONT, MARTIN
• 2.7, MONTICELLO, WRIGHT
• 2.0, 1 NNW SPRINGFIELD, BROWN
• 2.0, MARSHALL, LYON
• 1.9, 1 ESE MILROY, REDWOOD
• 1.8, ANDOVER, ANOKA
• 1.8, THEILMAN, WABASHA
• 1.7, NORTH MANKATO, NICOLLET
• 1.7, ELGIN, OLMSTED
• 1.5, WINTHROP, SIBLEY
• 1.5, MINNESOTA CITY, WINONA
• 1.4, ST PAUL, RAMSEY
• 1.3, PLYMOUTH, HENNEPIN
• 1.2, MADISON, LAC QUI PARLE
• 1.1, MINNEAPOLIS, HENNEPIN
• 1.1, WABASHA, WABASHA
• 1.0, GLENWOOD, POPE
• 1.0, ORONO, HENNEPIN
• 1.0, GOLDEN VALLEY, HENNEPIN
• 1.0, CHANHASSEN, CARVER
• 1.0, MENOMONIE, DUNN
• 1.0, ST LOUIS PARK, HENNEPIN
• 1.0, NORTH ST PAUL, RAMSEY
• 1.0, BROOKLYN CENTER, HENNEPIN
• 1.0, WACONIA, CARVER
• 1.0, WINONA, WINONA
• 0.5, ST CLOUD, STEARNS

The forecast models have mellowed out the weather makers for next week in terms of snow, at least for the Twin Cities.  We may see an inch or two on Sunday and then again Wednesday, but no major winter storms are in the foreseeable future before we warm back up to normal towards the end of the month.

Sunday’s weather will be impacted by a one, two punch of a couple low pressure areas that will exit the area by Monday.

The NAM and European models keep the bulk of the snow across west central Minnesota.  Several inches of snow may fall north and west of Alexandria.

January looks like it will end on a whimper as far as snow goes.  Soon, we will look at the February outlook and see if we end up receiving payback for the quiet winter so far.

RS

Update on Friday snows

We are still on track to see snow, some significant (> 4 inches), across southern sections of Minnesota on Friday as the jet stream overhead ushers in a Pacific system.  This is the same system that brought a snow and ice storm to the Seattle, Washington area on Wednesday and Thursday.  The weather is wrecking havoc on hundreds of thousandths of residents there.  Personally, I’ll take the cold we have here over the mess that has been created in western Washington.

With the cold temperatures, this system will be an efficient snow maker, so just a little bit of perceptible water in the atmosphere will yield higher snow totals.  The Twin Cities will see around two tenths of an inch of perceptible water from this storm.

My projections on snow totals changed too much since I last blogged about this storm at the Shakopee Valley News’ (home to perhaps the two hardest working ladies that cover Shakopee like a blanket) The WeatherDesk on Thursday.  We are looking at one to two inches of snow for the northern Twin Cities metro.  South of the Interstate 494/694 loop in the metro, two to three inches of snow is possible.  Outside of the metro, a large area of four to six inches of snow will be possible across south central Minnesota.  The heaviest snow bands will set up along the Interstate 90 corridor, so areas such as Fairmont over to Albert Lea and Austin may see the high end of around six inches.

Timing wise, we are looking at snow starting before the morning rush on the roadways, so expect slow traffic.  Snow will be ongoing throughout the majority of the day, ending close to midnight.

Heading into this storm, the Twin Cities has picked up 11.4 inches of snow for the season.  By it’s conclusion, we should have reached a seasonal total of over a foot of snow.  A far cry from the 54.1 inches we had heading into January 20th last year.

RS