StormChaser Schwartz

Winter with a touch of Spring

2012-01-26T07:52:00.001-06:00

Late Sunday into Monday, we experienced the unfamiliar sight this season of snow. You know, the flakey, white stuff, remember it? While most of the Twin Cities saw one to three inches of snow from this last storm system, it was enough to make for a very slow morning commute on Monday. Freezing mist fell most of Sunday before transitioning to snow late in the day, creating a glazed layer of ice on roadways in addition to snow accumulations to create slippery conditions. At least 100 vehicle spin-outs were reported across the metro. Hopefully you were not one of them! 1.9 inches of snow was recorded officially, bringing our seasonal total up to 14.4 inches. This last snowfall also pushed us beyond the mark for the least amount of seasonal snow of 14.2 inches set in the Dust Bowl era of 1931-32. We should add on to the total as we head into February, and then the second-snowiest month, March. We are not completely out of the clear for January snow. Friday is appearing to be more active, as well as the middle part of the upcoming weekend. It is difficult to pin down exact totals right now, but it does appear to be enough to slow things down a bit for those doing some weekend traveling. Cannot rule out at least an inch or two of snow during each snow episode, but these are not shaping up to be major storms.

Once we get past the snow, temperatures will noticeably warm up starting Thursday. The first stretch of mild air will last through the weekend. It will be followed by another surge of southerly winds on Tuesday. High temperatures will be running a good 10 to 15 degrees above normal at times during the next seven days. Can someone remind me what season it is again? One thing is for sure, it has made for a very short winter thus far. Hard to believe it's almost February!

It goes along with the month we are having. Since the beginning of January, we have been above average for high temperatures an incredible 21 out of 25 days! Forget winter, we jumped from fall right into spring! Another sign spring is around the corner? Minnesota Twins pitchers and catchers will be reporting in Fort Myers, Florida for Spring Training on February 18th.

Enjoy "March-uary" or whatever term you would like to call January. Perhaps blogging about the weather has kept the snow away? If that is the case, I could make a lot of good friends that dislike snow very quickly. "Old Man Winter" has certainly been in hibernation this season.

Snow totals for January 22 & 23

2012-01-24T00:23:00.001-06:00

Here are the snow total reports from the snow late Sunday night into Monday morning. Generally amounts ranged from one to four inches across the state. As I highlighted the previous night, I did feel the heaviest snow band would set up along Interstate 35 from the Twin Cities, southward. Amounts were generally a little higher than I thought they would be. My thinking was that the severe thunderstorm activity across the mid-south would steal much of the available moisture here for snow.

Snow totals by location (inches of snow, city, county):

Official total highlighted in blue

3.8, MAPLEWOOD, RAMSEY
3.5, OWATONNA, STEELE
3.5, SW ELLENDALE, STEELE
3.5, OAK CENTER, WABASHA
3.4, NORTH ST PAUL, RAMSEY
3.3, ST PAUL, RAMSEY
3.2, ST CLOUD, STEARNS
3.0, ANNANDALE, WRIGHT
3.0, WINTHROP, SIBLEY
3.0, LITCHFIELD, MEEKER
3.0, GLENCOE, MCLEOD
3.0, MANKATO, BLUE EARTH
3.0, 3 SE ALBERT LEA, FREEBORN
3.0, ZUMBROTA, GOODHUE
3.0, MANTORVILLE, DODGE
2.8, HUTCHINSON, MCLEOD
2.8, E OWATONNA, STEELE
2.7, WABASHA 5S, WABASHA
2.6, WINONA , WINONA
2.5, 2 SSW CAMBRIDGE, ISANTI
2.5, MANKATO, BLUE EARTH
2.5, 3 SE NEW ULM, BROWN
2.5, 1 NNW SPRINGFIELD, BROWN
2.4, RICE, BENTON
2.4, NORTHFIELD, RICE
2.3, RUSH CITY, CHISAGO
2.1, MONTICELLO, WRIGHT
2.1, ST CLOUD, STEARNS
2.0, INVER GROVE HEIGHTS, DAKOTA
2.0, 8 NW MORA, KANABEC
2.0, LAKEVILLE, DAKOTA
2.0, HASTINGS, DAKOTA
2.0, 3 SW CARLOS, DOUGLAS
2.0, MADELIA, WATONWAN
2.0, 3 SE LAKE ELMO, WASHINGTON
2.0, ELK RIVER, SHERBURNE
2.0, 3 N KIMBALL, STEARNS
2.0, RED WING, GOODHUE
2.0, 1 NNW COLD SPRING, STEARNS
2.0, PETERSON 1S, FILLMORE
1.9, MINNEAPOLIS, HENNEPIN
1.8, ST PAUL, RAMSEY
1.8, 2 WNW LAKEVILLE, DAKOTA
1.5, LAKEVILLE, DAKOTA
1.5, WINNEBAGO, FARIBAULT
1.5, 1 S BLUE EARTH, FARIBAULT
1.5, 9 NNE BIRD ISLAND, RENVILLE
1.5, FAIRMONT, MARTIN
1.5, 3 SSW MINNEAPOLIS, HENNEPIN
1.3, 1 ENE MINNESOTA LAKE, FARIBAULT
1.3, 1 SW MINNEAPOLIS, HENNEPIN
1.3, MORRIS, STEVENS
1.3, MILACA, MILLE LACS
1.2, WACONIA, CARVER
1.2, NORTH MANKATO, NICOLLET
1.1, ST LOUIS PARK, HENNEPIN
1.1, ONAMIA, MILLE LACS
1.1, RICE, BENTON
1.1, REDWOOD FALLS, REDWOOD
1.0, BROOKLYN CENTER, HENNEPIN
1.0, VESTA MN REDWOOD
1.0, 3 N WATERTOWN, WRIGHT
1.0, 1 ENE ST MICHAEL, WRIGHT
1.0, 3 N CAMBRIDGE, ISANTI
1.0, LITTLE FALLS, MORRISON
0.8, CHANHASSEN, CARVER

The next snow maker is setting up for Monday. As always, StormChaser Schwartz will be monitoring this develop storm over the upcoming days.

Transition to snow overnight

2012-01-22T23:27:00.001-06:00

Mist and freezing rain has been ongoing throughout the day on Sunday across much of Minnesota. Across southeastern Minnesota, numerous accidents have been reported as roads are glazed over by a thin layer of ice. Slowly, this rain is transitioning to snow as we head towards the midnight hour.

Snow bands will rotate around an area of low pressure across southern Minnesota during the morning hours. While moisture content is meager, it will be enough to support one to two inches of snow across the Interstate 35 corridor from the Twin Cities to the Minnesota/Iowa border.

The morning commute will be slow with the snow on top of the layer of ice. Give yourself plenty of time if you have to travel.

Messy start to Sunday?

2012-01-21T20:04:00.001-06:00

Temperatures will trend towards the freezing point by Sunday morning as southerly winds drive warmer air into the area.

With low pressure systems approaching and temps close to freezing, there is some concern the precipitation to begin the day could be a wintery mix of sleet, or even freezing rain. A few of the models, such as the SREF, are hinting at sleet, while the GFS and RUC are indicating freezing rain.

SREF:

RUC:

The reason for the freezing rain is that we have a warm layer of air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere sandwiched between a cold layer in the upper-levels and at the surface.

For anyone commuting in the morning, you’ll want to use caution. The roads may turn into ice rinks for a brief time during the morning before the change over to all snow in the afternoon. We’re still looking at about an inch to two inches of snow tomorrow for the Twin Cities with higher amounts across west-central and northwest Minnesota.

Next week storm systems looking quiet for now

2012-01-21T10:43:00.001-06:00

Friday’s snow came through during the first half of the day, and dropped generally one to two inches of snow across the Twin Cities. As expected, the heaviest amounts were seen along the Interstate 90 corridor in southern Minnesota, where as much as five inches of snow fell. The snow ended a bit sooner than I thought, so that kept actuals down from my projections, but were still within the ranges assigned Friday for the most part. Figuring precise totals will never be an exact science.

Snow totals by location (inches of snow, city, county):

5.0, GRAND MEADOW, MOWER
5.0, JACKSON, JACKSON
5.0, WORTHINGTON, NOBLES
4.6, ALBERT LEA, FREEBORN
4.5, COMFREY, BROWN
4.5, PRESTON, FILLMORE
4.5, LUVERNE, ROCK
4.2, FAIRMONT, MARTIN
4.0, LANESBORO, FILLMORE
4.0, LA CRESCENT DAM, WINONA
4.0, WINDOM, COTTONWOOD
4.0, IVANHOE, LINCOLN
3.8, MADELIA, WATONWAN
3.6, SPRING VALLEY 3E, FILLMORE
3.0, VESTA, REDWOOD
3.0, NEW ULM, BROWN
3.0, MANKATO, BLUE EARTH
3.0, SPRINGFIELD, BROWN
3.0, WINNEBAGO, FARIBAULT
3.0, WSW ST JAMES, WATONWAN
3.0, LAKE CITY, WABASHA
2.9, 1 ENE MINNESOTA LAKE, FARIBAULT
2.8, NE FAIRMONT, MARTIN
2.7, MONTICELLO, WRIGHT
2.0, 1 NNW SPRINGFIELD, BROWN
2.0, MARSHALL, LYON
1.9, 1 ESE MILROY, REDWOOD
1.8, ANDOVER, ANOKA
1.8, THEILMAN, WABASHA
1.7, NORTH MANKATO, NICOLLET
1.7, ELGIN, OLMSTED
1.5, WINTHROP, SIBLEY
1.5, MINNESOTA CITY, WINONA
1.4, ST PAUL, RAMSEY
1.3, PLYMOUTH, HENNEPIN
1.2, MADISON, LAC QUI PARLE
1.1, MINNEAPOLIS, HENNEPIN
1.1, WABASHA, WABASHA
1.0, GLENWOOD, POPE
1.0, ORONO, HENNEPIN
1.0, GOLDEN VALLEY, HENNEPIN
1.0, CHANHASSEN, CARVER
1.0, MENOMONIE, DUNN
1.0, ST LOUIS PARK, HENNEPIN
1.0, NORTH ST PAUL, RAMSEY
1.0, BROOKLYN CENTER, HENNEPIN
1.0, WACONIA, CARVER
1.0, WINONA, WINONA
0.5, ST CLOUD, STEARNS

The forecast models have mellowed out the weather makers for next week in terms of snow, at least for the Twin Cities. We may see an inch or two on Sunday and then again Wednesday, but no major winter storms are in the foreseeable future before we warm back up to normal towards the end of the month.

Sunday’s weather will be impacted by a one, two punch of a couple low pressure areas that will exit the area by Monday.

The NAM and European models keep the bulk of the snow across west central Minnesota. Several inches of snow may fall north and west of Alexandria.

January looks like it will end on a whimper as far as snow goes. Soon, we will look at the February outlook and see if we end up receiving payback for the quiet winter so far.

Update on Friday snows

2012-01-20T07:48:00.001-06:00

We are still on track to see snow, some significant (> 4 inches), across southern sections of Minnesota on Friday as the jet stream overhead ushers in a Pacific system. This is the same system that brought a snow and ice storm to the Seattle, Washington area on Wednesday and Thursday. The weather is wrecking havoc on hundreds of thousandths of residents there. Personally, I’ll take the cold we have here over the mess that has been created in western Washington.

With the cold temperatures, this system will be an efficient snow maker, so just a little bit of perceptible water in the atmosphere will yield higher snow totals. The Twin Cities will see around two tenths of an inch of perceptible water from this storm.

My projections on snow totals changed too much since I last blogged about this storm at the Shakopee Valley News’ (home to perhaps the two hardest working ladies that cover Shakopee like a blanket) The WeatherDesk on Thursday. We are looking at one to two inches of snow for the northern Twin Cities metro. South of the Interstate 494/694 loop in the metro, two to three inches of snow is possible. Outside of the metro, a large area of four to six inches of snow will be possible across south central Minnesota. The heaviest snow bands will set up along the Interstate 90 corridor, so areas such as Fairmont over to Albert Lea and Austin may see the high end of around six inches.

Timing wise, we are looking at snow starting before the morning rush on the roadways, so expect slow traffic. Snow will be ongoing throughout the majority of the day, ending close to midnight.

Heading into this storm, the Twin Cities has picked up 11.4 inches of snow for the season. By it’s conclusion, we should have reached a seasonal total of over a foot of snow. A far cry from the 54.1 inches we had heading into January 20th last year.

First subzero temps of the season

2012-01-18T00:03:00.001-06:00

The Twin Cities and much of greater Minnesota is in line to experience it’s first subzero temperatures by Thursday morning as Arctic air moves in behind an area of low pressure centered around the Great Lakes. We normally see the first below zero reading in the Twin Cities on December 9th, so we are running over a month behind on winter. The latest below zero reading in any given winter season is January 18th. There has also never been a winter that has not dipped below zero at least twice in the Twin Cities.

My hunch is that we will break this old record Thursday morning (January 19th) as we hover around -5°F for a low in the Twin Cities. Areas across northwestern Minnesota may see temps drop as low as -25°F, prompting an Extreme Cold Watch for that area.

NAM guidance showing the extend of the polar air across the continental United States mid-day Thursday:

First significant snow of the year on Friday?

2012-01-17T23:28:00.001-06:00

The first significant snow of the year may arrive on Friday as a Pacific weather system pushes into the area. The models have fluctuated a bit with intensity and location of this system in the last 24-36 hours, but it will be something to keep a close on. If this weather maker does come to fruition, then I believe at least four inches of snow will be possible across portions of southern Minnesota.

All models seem to be agreement of a south central location target for snowfall. The GFS favors a broader portion of the target area, while the NAM and Euro models favor the heaviest of the snow across southeastern Minnesota location. Snow lovers will rejoice in seeing an old friend, Old Man Winter.

GFS:

NAM:

Euro:

This will be the first of several snow chances looking into next week. A snow-covered ground looks likely at some point over the next seven days. Warmer temps are expected through the end of the month, which will work at the snow cover and probably leave us with bare ground by the time February rolls around.

February already? Time sure flies fast!

Week in Review: Normal temperatures return

2012-01-15T10:06:00.001-06:00

Reality set in last week as high temperatures plummeted from the 30s and 40s to begin the week, to finishing with more seasonal temperatures in the 20s. The average high this time of the year is 21 degrees. Welcome to January, this is how it’s supposed to feel!

Temperatures will fluctuate quite a bit between now and the end of the month. Sunday will see highs into the 30s, before trending downward through Wednesday as a cold front moves sweeps across the state early Monday morning. We may see low temperatures close to zero by the middle of the week.

A warm-up is on tap to start next week with highs climbing into the 30s by Monday, the 23rd. January is closing out with above normal temperatures, according to the GFS model, as temperatures hover around the 30 degree mark.

While the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is forecasted to trend negative during the remainder of January, it will not have a major impact on our weather. It will force temperatures towards normal in conjunction with La Niña. The NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic and affects weather patterns across the eastern half of the United States. A negative trend means the westerlies are suppressed, and the weather turns colder over the coming weeks. One of the theories why our winter has been so mild this year is due to the positive NAO from mid-November through January.

While we will see episodes of typical January weather when it comes to temperatures between now and the end of the month, we are not looking at extremes that we saw during the later half of 2010.

December weather summary

2012-01-10T00:08:00.001-06:00

December continued the ongoing trend of warmer than average temperatures, and lack of winter-like weather conditions. The average temperature in the Twin Cities during the month was 27.8 degrees – finishing 8.1 degrees above normal. According to the National Weather Service in Chanhassen, this was the 13th warmest December in Twin Cities modern history. High temperatures were well above normal during the second half of the month, and saw temperatures soar into the 50s the day after Christmas. Many lakes are suffering from thin ice, prompting warnings from the Minnesota DNR.

Looking at other locations around Minnesota, the St. Cloud temperature pattern was nearly identical to the Twin Cities and finished 9.3 degrees above average for the month at 25.2 degrees.

The trend was much the same across the state with above average everywhere. A good portion of Minnesota was running anywhere from five to ten degrees above normal.

Our mild temperatures brought a couple episodes of rain to the area in December. Since the ground remained unfrozen, this moisture was able to seep into the moisture-derived soil. 0.99 inch of liquid precipitation fell officially at MSP airport, which was close to normal with a 0.17 inch deficit. For the year, Minneapolis-St. Paul finished with 26.91 inches of precipitation, which was 3.7 inches below normal.

With the late month snowfall and rain across southeastern Minnesota, those areas ended up near normal for December in terms of precipitation. A large portion of Minnesota saw 25 to 50 percent of normal December precipitation, which did not improve on the drought situation.

Stay tuned for more updates on January’s weather!

Week in review: Record high temperatures on Thursday

2012-01-07T10:52:00.001-06:00

A warm front pushed through Minnesota on Thursday, bringing along with it record-breaking temperatures for many locations across the state.

Some parts of southwest Minnesota saw temperature soar into the 60s. The highest temperature in the state this day was from an automated station near Canby in Yellow Medicine County that recorded 63 degrees. Around the area, it was 62 degrees at Marshall, and 61 at both Milan and Madison. According to the Minnesota Climatology Working Group, there has never been a 60 degree temperature recorded during the first week of January in Minnesota's modern climate record. The warmest it has ever been during this time period in January before Thursday was 59 degrees, occurring on January 7, 2003 in Amboy, MN. The all-time record high temperature for any day in January is 69 degrees, occurring January 24, 1981 in Montevideo.

The warmth also extended across the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Duluth, International Falls, and Brainerd all saw record high temperatures.

With a bit of cloud cover, the Twin Cities fell short of breaking the record of 47 degrees set back in 1885, over 125 years ago! The temperature climbed to 45 degrees. Since the beginning of January, we have been running well above average for daytime temperatures. In some cases, over 20 degrees. We normally should be in the low 20s this time of the year.

The Twin Cities followed up this historic day for many parts of Minnesota with another day of mild weather. Just when you thought 45 degrees was warm, the mercury climbed another degree on Friday to 46 degrees. Bill McAuliffe (@billmcauliffe) of the Star Tribune posted this note on Twitter:

6 days into Jan Twin Cities, first back-to-back highs 45 or higher since 2006. (Those were Jan 26-27.) #stribwx #mnwinter

The warmth is not unprecedented. According to the National Weather Service in Chanhassen on this day (January 7th) in 2003:

Record warmth over Minnesota. Many places reach the 50's including the Twin Cities. St. James hit 59 and the Twin Cities reached 51. Nine golf courses were open in the Twin Cities and 100 golfers were already at the Sundance Golf Course in Maple Grove in the morning.

Freezing precipitation this morning

2011-12-31T10:51:00.001-06:00

Some freezing precipitation is being reported in the Brainerd area, and locations to the east this morning.

From the National Weather Service in Duluth:

AT 900 AM...SNOWFALL SPOTTERS AND AUTOMATED WEATHER STATIONS WERE REPORTING FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE BRAINERD AND NISSWA AREAS. AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NOON HOUR...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ICY CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH. IF TRAVELING...SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW FOR EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. LIGHT SNOW AND POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

Winter Storm Warning?

2011-12-31T10:34:00.001-06:00

Much to my surprise this morning, on the final day of 2011, Winter Storm Warnings have been posted issued for a good portion of east central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.

Winter Storm Warning valid at Dec 31, 9:00 PM CST for Anoka, Chisago, Dakota, Hennepin, Isanti, Le Sueur, Ramsey, Rice, Scott, Steele, Waseca, Washington [MN] and Barron, Polk, St. Croix [WI] till Jan 01, 6:00 AM CST
Winter Storm Warning valid at Dec 31, 4:00 PM CST for Pine [MN] and Burnett, Douglas, Sawyer, Washburn [WI] till Jan 01, 12:00 PM CST

A low pressure center and associated cold front is expected to move on top of southern Minnesota by the evening hours, generating precipitation and gusty winds along with it.

This storm system is forecasted to have up to a half-inch of of liquid precipitation to work with. The precipitation will start as rain before changing over to snow by around midnight.

The latest NAM is spitting out generally one to three inches of snow across the Twin Cities.

This will be a wet snow, so I think a range of one to three inches of snow across the Twin Cities seems like a real possibility.

Winds will be kicking up towards midnight with sustained winds between 20-30 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH or higher! This will result in some blowing snow and reduced visibilities. Fortunately, we are not looking at a ton of snow, so it should not be too much of a problem.

Stay safe on this New Year Eve and don’t drive home drunk. Have a sober ride lined up. The weather conditions will be a challenge during the overnight for even the sober of drivers.

Weather notes from this week

2011-12-29T16:41:00.001-06:00

Monday saw the mercury reach 52 degrees in the Twin Cities, which was a new record for the day. The previous record was 51 degrees set in 1936. We have been in the 50s before in December. In 1999, we set a record high temperature of 53 degrees for December 29th.

The DNR is warning us about fire danger. Yes, in December, folks. Unbelievable. Sometimes I have to ask myself which season is it again. Winter, spring, or fall? Not every year do you see green grass in some places before Christmas.

One last snow hurrah for 2011?

2011-12-29T16:31:00.001-06:00

In what perhaps will be the final snowfall of 2011, several locations across the southern half of Minnesota may pick up at least an inch of snow by midday Friday as a couple low pressure areas and associated front drag across the region. Temperatures will slip just enough below the freezing point for snowflakes. We’re not talking anything significant (>4 inches) by any means.

Moisture content will be meager, with the heaviest of the snow falling across far southeastern Minnesota. The concentrated areas of snow will fall south of Interstate 94.

The European model picks up on the moisture in far southern Minnesota in determining snow amounts.

In Rochester, the models seem to be agreeing on an amount in the three to four inch range.

In the Twin Cities, expect lighter snow. Right now, I thinking generally most areas in the metro will see about two inches of snow will some isolated areas, mainly south, seeing up to two-and-a-half inches.

Expect a slow commute Friday morning. The timing of the snow appears to be in a window between midnight and 9 AM.

Top 5 Minnesota weather events of 2011

2011-12-27T00:54:00.001-06:00

As 2011 wraps up, it was another historic year in weather filled with extremes. Some of the year’s events include tornado outbreaks across the southern United States, and closer to home, a top five snowfall for the 2010-11 season, humid summer, highest peak wind gust recorded in state history, a tornado in Minneapolis, and record fall drought. In reflection on 2011, here are my top 5 weather events for the year. The top events as voted on by the Minnesota Climatology Working Group are here.

#5 Minneapolis tornado

Note: While this event was listed number one by Minnesota Climatology Working Group, this list presented here was weighted on the significance of unusual events that are often historic. While this tornado impacted a lot of people in a populated area, the damage was relatively minor compared to tornado outbreaks across the central and southern United States during the spring.

The second tornado to hit Minneapolis in three years occurred on May 22th, and would be later classified by the National Weather Service in Chanhassen as a high-end EF-1. The tornado killed one person and injured 48 while it was on the ground for 14.25 miles from St. Louis Park to Blaine. The heaviest concentration of damage was confined to north Minneapolis. The majority of the damage was downed trees atop buildings and vehicles, however the twister did demolish garages, sheds, and rooftops at during peak strength.

The supercell that produced the twister was part of a larger storm extending from northeastern Oklahoma, and through the Mississippi Valley to northern Wisconsin. There were 56 reports of tornadoes across the United States this day with the strongest one affecting Joplin, Missouri. 162 people lost their lives, and thousands were displaced from their homes as large sections of the city were leveled.

Additional reading:

May 22, 2011: Tornadoes in Eastern Minnesota, including North Minneapolis – National Weather Service, Twin Cities
May 22, 2011 storm chase log – StormChaser Schwartz

#4 Humid summer

319 hours of dew point temperatures of 70 degrees or higher was recorded at the Twin Cities International Airport this summer, and a record was set for dew point temperatures of 75 degrees or higher with 103 hours. On July 19th, the dew point temperature reached 82 degrees at the Twin Cities, breaking the old record of 81 that was set on July 30, 1999. In addition, the highest dew point temperature recorded in Minnesota was set this day at the Moorhead Airport with 88 degrees, breaking the old record of 86 that was set at both Pipestone and St. James on July 23, 2005.

Shortly after 7 PM on July 19th, I recorded a heat index reading of nearly 118°F at my home in Shakopee. Temperatures were into the 90s, with dew points hovering around 80 degrees.

#3 Record wind speed in Donaldson

The first day of September and the meteorological autumn season brought severe thunderstorm winds across northwestern Minnesota as temperatures climbed into the 90s with dew points into the 70s. An automated station a mile west of Donaldson in Kittson County recorded a wind gust of 121 MPH during the early morning hours. This measurement was substantiated by damages inflicted in the surrounding landscape by such strong winds. Two large commercial grade steel bins were torn out from the local grain elevator, and the significant tree damage in the area matched winds of that extreme range. The National Weather Service, Minnesota State Climatology Office, and National Climatic Data Center tested the data collected from this station and later confirmed 121 MPH reading - the strongest wind speed ever measured in Minnesota. The old state record wind speed was 117 MPH from a thunderstorm near Alexandria, MN back on July 19, 1983. While wind speeds of this magnitude, and higher have likely occurred in Minnesota in the past, there was not any instrumentation that survived to record the wind speed. According to Dr. Mark Seeley, the wind in Donaldson was measured by an R.M. Young Wind Monitor (aero vane), a mechanical, propeller type instrument. The actual instrument is said to have a measurement range up to 224 MPH.

#2 Record fall drought

1.36 inches of liquid precipitation fell from September 1 to November 30 in the Twin Cities, which made it the driest autumn since records began in 1871. The entire state saw below normal precipitation for the season. On a larger scale, the lack of rain during the fall continued the ongoing drought across much of Minnesota since late summer. Sections of southern and western Minnesota are depicted by the U.S. Drought Monitor as falling in “moderate” to “severe” drought categories.

#1 Fourth snowiest snow season on record

The top event of the year goes to snow. The snowy trend carried into 2011 from December 2010 as we saw roughly the same amount of snow in the Twin Cities during the first four months of this year as we did in November and December of the previous year.

By the time the snow ended for the season, MSP recorded the fourth highest total on record with 86.6 inches.

February snows on the 20th and 21st shattered more climatological records. We witnessed the largest single snowstorm for the month in the Twin Cities since 1891 with an official total of 13.8 inches. A foot was recorded at my home in Shakopee, and I put together a time lapse of the snow as it feel in the backyard.

Along with the top five list, here are my storm chasing highlights from the year. Across Minnesota, it was a quiet year compared to 2010 with fewer ideal setups for severe storm initiation. As a result, fewer tornadoes were reported in 2011 (31) than the 30-year historical average (37). There seemed to be one ingredient missing or interference of mesoscale dynamics in these setups that prohibited storms from being really explosive this year.

Do you agree with my rankings? How would you rank the top five events from Minnesota? Share your thoughts below. I would also like to thank everyone that stopped by this site this year. Hopefully you learned a little bit about the weather this year, and look forward to your support in 2012!

The Best of Christmas Lights 2011

2011-12-18T23:29:00.001-06:00

Here are some of my best Christmas lights shots of 2011. These were taken on a Nikon D5000 with a Manfrotto tripod.

The first set comes from WaconiaChristmas.com. It is located at 1729 Park Point Road in Waconia. The lights are synchronized to music playing on 97.7 FM.

The second set comes from Christmas at the Fischer's Place. It is located at 16700 33rd Ave North in Plymouth. The lights are synchronized to music playing on 103.3 FM.

The third set comes from Bob and Julie Little's 55-foot oak tree on Meadowview Road in Bloomington. Overlooking the Cedar Avenue (Minnesota State Highway 77) Bridge, this tree has become a wintertime landmark for commuters, Twin Cities residents, and even pilots and passengers on planes approaching MSP from the south. The tree contains over 49,000 lights made up of blue LEDs.

Hope you have enjoyed the photos!

Warm weather ahead; Christmas snow looks less likely

2011-12-17T12:18:00.001-06:00

A mild week is on tap for next week as high temperatures will be running above average through Christmas. We could be in the 40s on Sunday with temperatures in the 30s as the week’s theme.

With the warm air, this will keep the snow chances low through the end of the week. The GFS is not suggesting any snow through Christmas Eve based on the latest model run:

The European model was keeping a pre-Christmas dusting of snow in the forecast as of last night’s model run. Still awaiting the mid-day Saturday model run. This will be last chance of snow. Based on the mild temperature profiles, I‘m favoring the GFS at this moment. The odds of a snowless Christmas are looking better each day.

While we had nowhere to dump snow last year, it’s a whole different animal this year. Lawns are being to green from the recent rainfall on Wednesday, and golf courses have the added benefit of staying open longer this year. On the other hand, it hurts businesses that depend on snow – snow removal services and retailers, snowmobile dealers, and sporting good retailers of winter equipment and gear. In already tough economic times, this certainly is not welcome.

Where is all the snow?

2011-12-16T21:29:00.001-06:00

From the December 16, 2011 Shakopee Valley News’ The WeatherDesk

As you may have noticed, we no longer have any snow on the ground thanks to our recent mild temperatures. Although the ground is bare, we are not far from the historical benchmark of 10 inches of snow for December. Officially, 7.9 inches of snow has fallen this month at MSP Airport, and I've seen 7.1 inches unofficially in Shakopee. Unofficial in that I'm not always around to measure the snow, and I do require sleep once in a while for the overnight snows!

About this time last year, we saw our historical snowfall that brought 21.5 inches of snow to Shakopee (and apparently made famous by CNN), and at least 18 inches to other parts of the Twin Cities. The weight of the snow caused the roof to collapse at the Metrodome, er, Mall of America Field. A video you've probably seen many times. We have been presented with much different conditions this year with rain, yes, rain in December, that feel on Wednesday. It was much needed for the drought-stricken soil. 0.37 inch of rain total fell from this storm system, and you have to go back nearly three months to October 12th when we last received at least that much rain. Had the air been about 10 degrees cooler, we may have seen up to a half foot of snow. Mostly likely would have been in the four to six inch snow range. This would have eliminated the concern of a Brown Christmas. We have a White Christmas in he Twin Cities about 75 percent of the time. The last Brown Christmas was in 2006, so we are statistically due to see another one. As you might expect, the odds are better of seeing a White Christmas as you travel north towards the Arrowhead region where a probability of 90 percent or greater exists.

What does Christmas hold for us in terms of seeing snow? That seems to be the $64,000 question raised by local weather media. I feel it’s too soon to completely write-off a White Christmas by the big holiday. For those wishing for snow, anxiety is beginning to kick in as we count down the days to the 25th. Forecasts can and do change rapidly, and sometimes snowstorms only appear three days out from the onset. There has been a lot of fluctuation with the models in regards to snow chances next week. At one point, snow was in the forecast for Monday, but that has all but been eliminated. Just recently, there were hints of snow on Christmas Eve, but that projection was moved up to Thursday. This may be the last shot for a White Christmas.

So what is my prediction? Drumroll, please. If I was a betting person, I would say that we have a Brown Christmas. I'm going to go with an 80 percent chance of that happening. There just are not any definite signs that says a snowstorm is on it's way. The jet stream shows signs of an El Nino weather pattern rather than a La Nina one with a "split flow" across the northern and southern states, which may be partially responsible for our mild weather this year.

For snow lovers, keep your fingers crossed, but the odds favor a Brown Christmas this year. Still plenty of time for things to change!

Too early to declare a “brown” Christmas for 2011?

2011-12-13T07:53:00.001-06:00

As I was reading various weather-related articles from local media and watching weather segments during television newscasts on Tuesday, there seems to be a scare that we could be in for a “brown” Christmas this year with the recent mild temperatures taking care of the current snow pack. A brown Christmas is defined as less than one inch of snow on the ground. As of December 12th, locations across the Arrowhead and southeastern Minnesota are still reporting a few inches of snow on the ground. The Twin Cities had one inch of snow.

Occasionally, we do have a Christmas when there is no snow on the ground. It’s not uncommon. Nearly three out of four Christmases in the Twin Cities have at least one inch of snow on the ground. The last time the Twin Cities had seen a brown Christmas was in 2006, so we are due for one. As the map below indicates, if you want to see a white Christmas, then your odds are generally better to head north.

We are less than two weeks away from Christmas, and I feel it’s too soon to write-off any snow yet for the holiday. For those wishing for snow, anxiety is beginning to kick in as we count down the days to the 25th. Forecasts can and do change rapidly, and sometimes snowstorms only appear three days out from the onset.

Another storm system we will need to pay attention to comes into play on Monday. This will be another system that will be teetering on the rain/snow line. The GFS model is showing the rain/snow line roughly south and east from the northern Twin Cities metro, to just southeast of St. Cloud, and extending south along Minnesota State Highway 15.

We could see accumulating snow with this system on Monday, but it’s still early to give precise estimates on amounts.

What happens late next week and still a mystery, but it will provide one last chance at snow before Christmas if we do not see anything significant before then. Stay tuned for more on this white Christmas suspense story!

Storm update

2011-12-13T07:51:00.001-06:00

The storm event for Wednesday into Thursday is looking more and more like a rain producer. Some of the models have trended towards shifting a warm front into north central Minnesota, thus allowing precipitation from the approaching low pressure center to fall as rain. There will not be much snow associated with this, but central Minnesota and the northern parts of the Twin Cities could see some flakes late Wednesday into Thursday morning on the back side of this system as it exits to the east.

The NAM model shows the temperature profile being just above freezing (0°C) at the lowest 6000 feet in the atmosphere at 7 AM on Wednesday to melt any snow in the upper-levels of the atmosphere.

The SREF model also agrees with the precipitation type (p-type) as rain for Wednesday morning.

The European model suggests snow flurries Wednesday morning across the northern and western parts of the greater Twin Cities metro, but as of now, I’m not buying into this solution. I think we will be too warm to see any snow close to the Twin Cities to start the day.

It’s looking like this will be a missed opportunity to have a “white” Christmas, but I still believe it’s too soon to declare a “brown” Christmas this year. I will explain more in my next post.

Rain midweek; freezing rain?

2011-12-11T10:13:00.001-06:00

For snow lovers across the southern half of Minnesota, the storm system for midweek does not look all that promising for snow. Recent trends are indicating that the southern two-thirds will be in the warm sector, thus any precipitation will fall as rain. Yes, you heard that right, rain for mid-December! The red line below from the NAM model indicates the rain/snow line.

Another short-range model, the SREF, shifts the rain/snow line a bit further south, but keeps the southern half of the state in the “rain zone”.

There are some hints that there could be freezing rain at times early Wednesday morning across central Minnesota, and encroaching on the Twin Cities. This is something that will have to be closely watched in the upcoming days as it could impact the work commute.

There is not a ton of moisture associated with this system. The southeastern third of Minnesota could see a half to three-quarters inch of rain out between Wednesday morning and Friday morning. The upper layer of the soil profile is said to be frozen to a few inches in most Minnesota locales, so unfortunately any rain will have difficulty penetrating into the ground to alleviate the drought.

A look back at the December 10-12, 2010 snowstorm and blizzard

2011-12-10T18:00:00.001-06:00

Between December 10th and 12th, 2010, a paralyzing snow fell over much of southern Minnesota. By the conclusion of the event, it would have historic impacts - it was the largest snowfall in nearly 20 years for the Twin Cities since the Halloween Blizzard of 1991, the largest snowstorm to affect the Twin Cities in December, and the fifth largest snowfall from any one storm on record in the metro. The Minnesota Climatology Working Group named it the third biggest weather event of 2010. It also ranked third on my personal list of top weather events for the year.

A very potent winter storm developed over South Dakota and Nebraska on Friday, December 10th. It was an unusual storm in that it was a Pacific type storm system, which are not known to be high snowfall producers due to the limited amount of moisture available. The moisture transport for this system was along an “atmospheric river”. Here is an animated loop of the storm system as it moved across the Upper Midwest:

Precipitation began as freezing rain, with sleet across far southern Minnesota on the evening of the 10th. Eventually enough cold air wrapped into the system to cause all precipitation to change over to snow before midnight. Snow continued into the day on Saturday, December 11th. Radar loop of the precipitation as it moved through the area during the duration of the event:

The storm system strengthened as it moved into Iowa through the 11th, and brought the highest snow accumulations during the morning and afternoon hours. The deepened low pressure area created a tight pressure gradient in the atmosphere to generate strong winds and blizzard-like conditions across southern Minnesota, including the southern parts of the Twin Cities metro (Carver, Scott, and Dakota Counties).

Visibilities to one-quarter mile or less was reported at MSP airport during a seven hour span on December 11th. This resulted in the airport being shut down for four hours. The poor visibilities were captured by a fixed camera I set up at my weather desk in Shakopee.

The storm system then moved east Saturday night, causing the snow to come to an end across southeast Minnesota by the morning of December 12th. The weight of all the snow collapsed the roof of the Metrodome in Minneapolis during the early morning hours.

The highest concentration of snow occurred across east central and southeast Minnesota. A total of 17.1 inches of snow fell officially in the Twin Cities at Twin Cities International Airport during the 10th (0.8 inch) and 11th (16.3 inches). Locally, I measured 21.5 inches of snow from the storm on the front sidewalk. It was a challenging snow to measure with winds from 25 to 40 MPH causing snow drifts. Here was the view from outside my front door just before 1 PM on the 11th:

Our neighbors on the east side of the St. Croix, Eau Claire, Wisconsin, picked up 22 inches of snow in one day, setting a new record. The largest Minnesota snow total was 23 inches recorded in the southeastern city of Winona. Here are snowfall totals across the state from the National Weather Service in Chanhassen:

Here is a closer look at snow amounts in the Twin Cities, and reports from the seven-county area listed by inches, city, and county:

21.0, OAKDALE, WASHINGTON
20.0, MAPLEWOOD, RAMSEY
18.0, (3 SSW) BURNSVILLE, DAKOTA
18.0, (2 W) PRIOR LAKE, SCOTT
17.5, (3 NW) MINNEAPOLIS, HENNEPIN
17.4, LAKEVILLE, DAKOTA
17.2, WOODBURY, WASHINGTON
17.2, (1 W) CARVER, CARVER
17.1, MINNEAPOLIS, HENNEPIN (MSP AIRPORT)
16.5, SAVAGE, SCOTT
16.3, HASTINGS, DAKOTA
16.1, BLOOMINGTON, HENNEPIN
15.5, CHANHASSEN, CARVER (NWS OFFICE)
15.2, ST LOUIS PARK, HENNEPIN
14.7, WACONIA, CARVER
14.5, (3 SSW) WHITE BEAR LAKE, RAMSEY
13.5, (1 ESE) CHASKA, CARVER
13.0, STILLWATER, WASHINGTON
11.5, ANDOVER, ANOKA
10.8, CHAMPLIN, HENNEPIN

This was a memorable storm for several reasons. It may also be considered this generation’s 1991 Halloween Blizzard for those who may not have been old enough to recall that event, or were not living in the area.

Additional information on this event:

November weather summary and December outlook

2011-12-06T07:59:00.001-06:00

November continued the warm and dry this fall. The average temperature in the Twin Cities during the month was 39.3 degrees, and finished 5.6 degrees above normal. This was the ninth warmest November in Twin Cities modern history. High temperatures were well above normal for the month, and included a mild Thanksgiving. It tied a maximum temperature record for November 24th. Records were set elsewhere across the state.

Looking at other locations around Minnesota, the St. Cloud temperature pattern was nearly identical to the Twin Cities and finished 3.8 degrees above average for the month at 34.2 degrees.

The trend was much the same across the state with above average everywhere. The eastern half of the Twin Cities metro, and northwestern Minnesota were running five to six degrees above normal.

Dry conditions persisted across the state. For most of southern Minnesota, this was the driest meteorological fall on record. The Twin Cities recorded it’s driest fall on record.

Just three tenths of an inch of liquid precipitation fell officially at MSP airport for a total of 1.36 inches for the fall. This resulted in a deficit of 5.92 inches for the season. At St. Cloud, 0.23 inches of rain was recorded. This was 1.15 inches below normal.

Some areas of southwest Minnesota observed less than 5% of their normal November precipitation, which further alleviated the drought situation. Most of the state received half or less of normal monthly precipitation.

At the end of November, the drought situation was at a “severe” level across southern and the Arrowhead of Minnesota. The lack of sunlight and daytime heating this time of the year has prevented the drought and fire danger from accelerating.

According to the Climate Prediction Center, December is looking like a normal month compared to the extremes we experienced during previous months. Normal temperatures and precipitation is forecasted for the month. The Twin Cities average monthly temperature is 24.5 degrees and liquid precipitation is 0.18 inch. We are already above normal for precipitation for the month as of December 6th. MSP has recorded 0.23 inches so far in December. This came from the December 3rd snow.

December temperature outlook:

December precipitation outlook:

A look back at the Saturday snow

2011-12-04T23:59:00.001-06:00

Here is comprehensive look at snow totals from across the state on Saturday. The Saturday midday NAM output did a fairly good job at projecting snow amounts for this storm. The storm track appeared to shift 25 to 35 miles further to the northwest than what the model suggested, which brought four and a half to five inch snows to Dakota County in the southeastern Twin Cities metro. With the shift, this was slightly higher than the four inch snows I forecasted across this area. Snow totals in excess of five inches were common across south central and southeast Minnesota. This area I believed would see four to six inches, which verified to the reports. As expected, there was a sharp cutoff to the snow towards the northwest. Snow generally fell south of a line from Marshall, to St. Cloud, to Moose Lake.

In my own backyard in Shakopee, 4.3 inches of snow had accumulated before midnight on Saturday, but I was not able to take another measurement before the end of the snowfall and subsequent snow melt Sunday morning. It was not included in the final snow totals report from the National Weather Service in Chanhassen.

Here was the scene in the backyard Saturday evening as an inch of snow had already fallen.

Other Minnesota locations listed by amount, city, and county:

6.00, SPRING VALLEY 3E, FILLMORE (Golden Shovel Award)
5.50, ELLENDALE, STEELE
5.50, MAPLETON, BLUE EAR
5.40, WABASHA, WABASHA
5.20, WINONA, WINONA
5.20, HASTINGS, DAKOTA
5.20, NORTH MANKATO, NICOLLET
5.00, WINONA 4SW, WINONA
5.00, MINNESOTA CITY, WINONA
5.00, FAIRMONT, MARTIN
5.00, 1 WSW LITTLE CANADA, RAMSEY
5.00, RED WING, GOODHUE
4.90, THEILMAN, WABASHA
4.80, AUSTIN 1W, MOWER
4.50, HARMONY, FILLMORE
4.50, 3 SE MAPLEWOOD, WASHINGTON
4.50, 1 ENE INVER GROVE HEIGH, DAKOTA
4.50, 3 SE LAKE ELMO, WASHINGTON
4.50, 1 S BLUE EARTH, FARIBAULT
4.50, INVER GROVE HEIGHTS, DAKOTA
4.50, 3 SSW BURNSVILLE, DAKOTA
4.50, 1 NNW OWATONNA, STEELE
4.40, 3 N BURNSVILLE, HENNEPIN
4.40, MINNEAPOLIS MSP AIRPORT, HENNEPIN
4.30, 4 E NERSTRAND, GOODHUE
4.30, 1 NNW NORTH ST PAUL, RAMSEY
4.30, 2 W PRIOR LAKE, SCOTT
4.30, CREDIT RIVER, SCOTT
4.30, 2 W PRIOR LAKE, SCOTT
4.20, 1 SSE BLOOMINGTON, HENNEPIN
4.20, 1 S HAMPTON, DAKOTA
4.10, 1 ENE BLUE EARTH, FARIBAULT
4.00, ASKOV, PINE
4.00, ALTURA 5W, WINONA
4.00, GRAND MEADOW, MOWER
4.00, LYLE 2NE, MOWER
4.00, PETERSON 1S, FILLMORE
4.00, PRESTON, FILLMORE
4.00, 3 W NEW ROME, SIBLEY
4.00, 1 E OWATONNA, STEELE
4.00, 2 N WOODBURY, WASHINGTON
4.00, WINNEBAGO, FARIBAULT
3.90, 1 W CARVER, CARVER
3.70, 2 SSW LAKEVILLE, DAKOTA
3.70, 3 SE NEW ULM, BROWN
3.60, ROCHESTER AP 2NE, OLMSTED
3.50, 4 SSW MINNEAPOLIS, HENNEPIN
3.50, 1 SW EDINA, HENNEPIN
3.50, CHANHASSEN, CARVER
3.50, 1 NE MINNEAPOLIS, HENNEPIN
3.50, MADELIA, WATONWAN
3.40, ROCHESTER AIRPORT, OLMSTED
3.40, BLOOMINGTON, HENNEPIN
3.30, AUSTIN KAAL TV, MOWER
3.20, CANNON FALLS, GOODHUE
3.20, CHANHASSEN WFO, CARVER
3.10, ELGIN, OLMSTED
3.00, LAKE CITY COOP, WABASHA
3.00, 1 ENE RICHFIELD, HENNEPIN
3.00, 1 NE ZUMBROTA, GOODHUE
3.00, EDEN PRAIRIE, HENNEPIN
3.00, 2 NNW RED WING L/D3, GOODHUE
2.90, 2 NW CHASKA, CARVER
1.60, SPRING GROVE 4N, HOUSTON
1.30, LA CRESCENT DAM 7, WINONA
1.00, 14 W ISABELLA, LAKE
1.00, BRUNO, PINE
0.90, HOLYOKE, CARLTON
0.60, 5 NNE TWO HARBORS, LAKE
0.60, 9 NNE HERMANTOWN, ST. LOUIS
0.50, 2 E FINLAND, LAKE
0.50, 6 NW DULUTH, ST. LOUIS
0.40, WRENSHALL, CARLTON
0.20, 1 SW TOFTE, COOK
0.10, 3 E PAYNE, ST. LOUIS

Another snowy Saturday

2011-12-03T12:55:00.001-06:00

Our first significant snow of the season fell across Minnesota on a Saturday, and we will see another bout today. Snow is trying to fall across southern Minnesota, but appears to be evaporating before hitting the ground. No snow is being reported across southern Minnesota as of the noon hour.

The forecast models have increased the snow a bit across the Twin Cities area. The NAM model has brought the snow band a bit further north and west and a good portion of the Twin Cities may see two to four inches of snow. The heaviest snow in the Cities will be southeast of the Minnesota River with one to two inches across the northwest and northern suburbs on the Twin Cities.

Using the RUC timing, accumulating snows should begin in the Twin Cities by 4 PM. Both short-term forecast models, the NAM and RUC, are indicating at least two inches of snow across the heart of the metro, so receiving at least that much is a safe bet. (Click to expand the image.)

NAM:

RUC:

For our friends across southeast Minnesota, around Rochester and Albert Lea, I still believe that a swath of four to six inches of snow is possible.

The National Weather Service elected to drop the Winter Storm Watch and went with a Winter Weather Advisory instead.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 6:00 AM Sunday for the following Minnesota counties: Anoka, Blue Earth, Brown, Carver, Chisago, Dakota, Dodge, Faribault, Fillmore, Freeborn, Goodhue, Hennepin, Le Sueur, Martin, Mower, Nicollet, Olmsted, Ramsey, Rice, Scott, Sibley, Steele, Wabasha, Waseca, Washington, Watonwan, and Winona.

Update on snowy Saturday

2011-12-02T18:45:00.001-06:00

Snow will be arriving in Minnesota by Saturday evening as a low pressure area tracks northeast from the Central Plains states. The southeastern corner of Minnesota will be brushed by this system.

This system will have plenty of Gulf moisture to work with, which will result in larger snow totals across the area.

The GFS and European forecast models have similar solutions on the storm track, so I will work with this output in my forecast.

Euro:

GFS:

Parts of the Twin Cities metro will pick up 1 to 2 inches of snow. Areas to the southeast will see amounts in the 4 to 6 inch range between the Albert Lea and Rochester areas. Expect snows to begin around the dinner hour on Saturday.

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued by the National Weather Service for the possibility of 6 inches or more snow and is in effect from Dec 03, 6:00 AM CST till Dec 04, 6:00 AM CST for these Minnesota counties: Blue Earth, Dodge, Faribault, Fillmore, Freeborn, Goodhue, Martin, Mower, Olmsted, Rice, Steele, Wabasha, Waseca, and Winona.

Warm Thanksgiving across Minnesota

2011-11-26T10:24:00.001-06:00

It was an unusually warm Thanksgiving across much of Minnesota as many locations saw record high temperatures for the day. Redwood Falls reached 66 degrees, just two degrees shy of the state record for the date of 68 degrees set at Wheaton in 1984. It was also the fourth warmest Thanksgiving in Twin Cities history.

According to the MPR WeatherTalk blog, these locations across the state tied or broke records for November 24th:

65 degrees, Canby
64 degrees, Tracy
61 degrees, Austin
60 degrees, Rochester
59 degrees (tied), Minneapolis-St. Paul
57 degrees, Fargo-Moorhead
55 degrees (tied), Detroit Lakes

Our Thanksgiving weather goes along with the theme this week of warm weather. The week started off cool, but between November 23rd and November 25th (last three days), the Twin Cities is running almost 20 degrees above normal for high temperatures. The trend is the same for much of southern Minnesota. What season is it again?

Happy Thanksgiving! Will it be a record setting one?

2011-11-24T09:54:00.001-06:00

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone out there! This post will look at the climatology on the day that we give thanks.

According to the Minnesota State Climatology Group, a typical Thanksgiving Day in the Twin Cities has high temperatures in the 30s, and at least a bit of filtered sunshine. This year will atypical as high temperatures will be approaching 60 degrees in the Twin Cities! I have little doubt that we will see temperatures in the 55 to 60 degree range with just a few high clouds in the area. With last weekend’s snow pack pretty much gone, the sun’s energy will be used to warm the surface. For now, I am going with a forecast of 59 degrees in the metro. If this was to happen, it would tie the record for November 24th set in 1990. The most recent mildest Thanksgiving happened in 1998 when the mercury hit 58 degrees in the Twin Cities. As for the warmest Thanksgiving, it is 62 degrees, set in 1914, and later tied in 1922.

A Thanksgiving with temperatures above 50 degrees is a rare event in the Twin Cities as it has occurred just eight times since 1891. Thursday’s setup will feature southerly winds pulling warm air into the Upper Midwest as the upper-level jet stream lifts into southern Ontario, Canada. Some locations across far southern Minnesota will likely see 60 degree readings during the afternoon.

This time last year, there was little snow on the ground across the Twin Cities with the most in Scott County. Across northern Minnesota, it was a different story as there was significant snow on the ground north of a Brainerd line.

Snow is commonplace across the state on Thanksgiving. Historically, one in three Thanksgivings have at least one inch of snow on the ground. In 1993, a Thanksgiving Day Blizzard affected central, western, and south central Minnesota, with heavy snow across most of Minnesota. Over a foot of snow accumulated over west central Minnesota, and snowfall in excess of six inches or greater occurred north of a line from Bricelyn, in Faribault County, to the Twin Cities. MSP picked up 4.3 inches of snow this day.

This could be one for the record books! Enjoy your Thanksgiving with family and friends.

Summary of November 19 snow

2011-11-21T21:31:00.001-06:00

Here is a map and summary from the National Weather Service in Chanhassen of the snow that fell across southern Minnesota on November 19th.

This snow will work against temperatures from increasing too much over the couple days, but by Thanksgiving we could be looking at 50 degree weather around the Twin Cities.

Snow ending and totals from Saturday

2011-11-19T19:24:00.001-06:00

The heaviest of the snow has ended across the state and some totals are starting to come in from the first measurable snow for much of Minnesota. Locally, I received 2.3 inches of snow in Shakopee, which was not yet reflected on this report at the time it was created.

Here are the reports:

INCHES  LOCATION         ST  COUNTY         TIME
------  ---------------  --  -------------  -------
 11.00   ST STEPHEN      MN  STEARNS        0413 PM
 11.00   2 N SARTELL     MN  STEARNS        0407 PM
  7.00   SAUK RAPIDS     MN  BENTON         0343 PM
  7.00   BELGRADE        MN  STEARNS        0157 PM
  6.60   7 S HILLMAN     MN  MORRISON       0248 PM
  6.50   MILACA          MN  MILLE LACS     0517 PM
  6.30   2 W FOLEY       MN  BENTON         0537 PM
  6.00   SAUK RAPIDS     MN  BENTON         0430 PM
  6.00   STARBUCK        MN  POPE           0207 PM
  5.80   ST CLOUD        MN  STEARNS        0500 PM
  5.60   MURDOCK         MN  SWIFT          0332 PM
  5.50   11 NE WARMAN    MN  KANABEC        0630 PM
  5.50   2 W FOLEY       MN  BENTON         0359 PM
  5.50   SARTELL         MN  STEARNS        0257 PM
  5.00   RICE            MN  BENTON         1226 PM
  4.00   NORTH BRANCH    MN  CHISAGO        0623 PM
  4.00   STARBUCK        MN  POPE           0129 PM
  3.50   ST CLOUD        MN  STEARNS        0600 PM
  3.50   KIMBALL         MN  STEARNS        0417 PM
  3.20   WOODBURY        MN  WASHINGTON     0500 PM
  3.00   ISANTI          MN  ISANTI         0635 PM
  3.00   MINNEAPOLIS     MN  HENNEPIN       0553 PM
  3.00   ST AUGUSTA      MN  STEARNS        0321 PM
  3.00   6 W BELLINGHAM  MN  LAC QUI PARLE  1215 PM
  3.00   SAUK CENTRE     MN  STEARNS        1030 AM
  2.80   PRINSBURG       MN  KANDIYOHI      0358 PM
  2.50   INVER GROVE HEI MN  DAKOTA         0537 PM
  2.50   MILACA          MN  MILLE LACS     0139 PM
  2.50   LOUISBURG       MN  LAC QUI PARLE  0936 AM
  2.20   LONG PRAIRIE    MN  TODD           0612 PM
  2.20   5 SW ST PAUL    MN  RAMSEY         0600 PM
  2.10   NORTH ST PAUL   MN  RAMSEY         0542 PM
  2.00   ISANTI          MN  ISANTI         0413 PM
  1.80   2 W PRIOR LAKE  MN  SCOTT          0545 PM
  1.80   SARTELL         MN  STEARNS        1212 PM
  1.70   CHANHASSEN      MN  CARVER         0542 PM
  1.50   2 S RICE LAKE   WI  BARRON         0259 PM
  1.50   BURNSVILLE      MN  DAKOTA         0257 PM
  1.30   COMFREY         MN  BROWN          0445 PM
  1.00   FARMINGTON      MN  DAKOTA         0543 PM
  1.00   FARMINGTON      MN  DAKOTA         0537 PM
  1.00   LITTLE CANADA   MN  RAMSEY         0255 PM
  0.50   WINTHROP        MN  SIBLEY         0607 PM
  0.50   MADELIA         MN  WATONWAN       0554 PM
  0.50   MANKATO         MN  BLUE EARTH     0407 PM
  0.50   BENSON          MN  SWIFT          0936 AM

The snow has arrived

2011-11-19T10:03:00.001-06:00

Snow had begun falling across the western and north central parts of Minnesota during the morning hours. Louisburg, near the Minnesota and South Dakota border, has received two and a half inches of snow as of 9:35 AM. The area highlighted in yellow below is where the heaviest snow band will set up today. Snowfall rates may reach one inch per hour at times as the low pressure area tracks through the southeast corner of Minnesota.

Here are my projections for snow totals from this storm across the state. I’m favoring the GFS for location and amounts with this snow. One to two inches across the Twin Cities, two to three across central Minnesota and northeastward into Duluth, and the heavy snow occurring across far western Minnesota where as much as four inches may fall.

Weekend snow update

2011-11-16T21:52:00.001-06:00

An update to the first measureable snow of the season that will impact areas of central and south central Minnesota during the weekend…

Over the last couple days, the forecast models have been shifting in different directions with the approaching low pressure area. The consistent trend that I have seen is that snow will fall across the central part of the state from St. Cloud to Brainerd to Duluth. The big question has been the impacts of the storm across the Twin Cities. The rain/snow dividing line is setting up to be very close to the metro. My current thinking is that the Twin Cities will see rain to start the day on Saturday, before changing over to snow Saturday night, based on the NAM temperature profiles. Areas to the north will see snow the majority of the day.

Based on my calculations, I’m expecting about a slushy inch of snow across the metro, and south to Mankato and Owatonna, while areas that see most of the snow could pick up as much as three inches. This will be a wet and heavy snow with snow ratios in the 5:1-8:1 range.

Snow this weekend? A close call for the Twin Cities metro

2011-11-15T07:49:00.001-06:00

A low pressure area is expected to track northeastward that will bring a chance of snow across central Minnesota this weekend. The timing right now appears to be late Saturday into Sunday.

The cutoff for accumulating snow is setting up to be be right over the Twin Cities metro according to the GFS and European forecast models. It possible that some places across central Minnesota could pick up a half of foot of snow or more. It still a bit early to give exact snowfall estimates as the projected storm track may still shift between now and the weekend. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a dusting of snow across the Twin Cities, especially the northern suburbs.

GFS:

European:

Something to watch that may have an impact on weekend travel. Stay tuned!

Look back at the November 13, 2010 snow storm

2011-11-15T01:10:00.001-06:00

A little over a year ago today, the Twin Cities saw it’s first significant snowfall of the 2010-11 season from a low pressure system that developed across the southern United States, and moved from a northern Missouri to western Wisconsin position between the 12th and 14th of November. The track was one of a “Panhandle Hooker”. No, it’s not a dirty term - rather it’s a system that develops over the panhandle of Texas and Oklahoma. This was the largest pre-Thanksgiving snowfall for the Twin Cities since the Halloween Blizzard of 1991.

As I recall from a blog entry at the time, there was roughly a 48-hour advanced warning with this system as winter storm watches were issued on the 11th. The snow would begin late on the night of the 12th, and persist through the day on the 13th for much of central and southern Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin. The snow ended in northeast Minnesota on the 14th. This storm left a blanket of snow about 100 miles wide from western Iowa, though south central Minnesota, and into the Arrowhead of Minnesota. The snow was wet and heavy from having a high moisture content level. It caused tree branches to snap, and resulted in power outages. Thunder and lightning accompanied the storm, and was observed across southern and eastern Minnesota during morning hours of the 13th.

The highest snow total reported in Minnesota was 12 inches near Maple Grove in Hennepin County. The National Weather Service Office in Duluth saw 10.6 inches. At Twin Cities International Airport, as well as my location in Shakopee, 8 inches of snow fell. Of the 8 inches at the airport, 7.7 inches was recorded on the 13th.

Additional reading:

First snow recorded of the season in the Twin Cities

2011-11-10T22:57:00.001-06:00

MSP finally recorded it’s first snow of the season Wednesday night as a trace of snow fell. It was repeated with another trace of snow Thursday morning. No measureable snow has fallen so far this season.

The next chance of any flurries is Sunday morning. Looking ahead, there are no major storms in sight through Thanksgiving for now.

Tuesday snow storm update

2011-11-08T07:38:00.001-06:00

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued from 6:00 PM CST Tuesday until 12:00 PM CST Wednesday for the following counties across Minnesota: Dodge, Fillmore, Houston, Mower, Olmsted, Wabasha, and Winona. The National Weather Service says six or more inches is possible in the watch area.

The storm system will move into southern Wisconsin by Wednesday with cold air, near freezing, wrapping into the moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico. This will set the stage for snow behind the system across southeast Minnesota, and a good portion of Wisconsin.

For forecasted snowfall totals, I am going on a blend of the NAM and European models.

NAM snowfall output:

European snowfall output:

Snow flurries may be mixed in with rain showers across the far southeastern corner of the Twin Cities metro, Dakota County in particular, by the morning on Wednesday, but the heaviest snow will be located across southeast Minnesota into Wisconsin. It appears areas from Red Wing to Rochester will see one to three inches of snow, while Rochester to La Crosse, Wisconsin will see larger amounts in the three to six inch range. Enough to shovel, and perhaps some early season work for the snow blowers!

Monday morning update on midweek storm

2011-11-07T07:49:00.001-06:00

With the latest forecast model runs, we are starting to see more agreement for the projected track of the storm system that is expected to arrive late Tuesday into the first half of the day Wednesday.

Both the GFS and European models put the snow line starting roughly at Red Wing, Minnesota. Rochester could see a couple inches of snow, while places such as Winona and La Crosse, Wisconsin could pick up close to five inches of snow. Enough to shovel. The Twin Cities could see some flurries mixed with rain showers, but nothing significant.

The GFS model storm track:

The Euro model storm track:

Across southeast Minnesota, the available moisture that the storm will have to work with will be good for producing snow. No dry layers of air are shown towards the surface.

Sunday update on midweek storm

2011-11-06T09:42:00.001-06:00

Just a quick update on the midweek storm system that may bring snow and rain to the area…

Part of the challenge is that there is no agreement between the forecast models. The American models (GFS and NAM) want to steer the storm track east over the Great Lakes region. The European and Canadian models want to take the track over southeast Minnesota. Another factor is the rain/snow line, and how close will it setup to the Twin Cities metro area.

My current thinking is to keep the snow southeast of the Twin Cities into southeast Minnesota. Analyzing the dynamics, I’m not real impressed with the snow making ability of this system. Rochester is in line to pick up a coating to two inches of snow on the backside of the low pressure system. This accumulated snowfall image through Wednesday night summarizes how I see the event unfolding.

Thoughts on next week’s storm system

2011-11-05T09:55:00.001-05:00

As early as Thursday morning, forecast models began to pick up on a low pressure system tracking across across the Upper Midwest from the southwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. Watching the various model runs over the last couple days, it’s appearing more likely that the low track will be to our east, across Wisconsin.

As it tracks across the region, it is expected to tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture to bring some respectable precipitation. At this time, it looks like Wisconsin will see the brunt of the storm.

The rain/snow line may just cut through the southeastern Twin Cities metro. Right now, it appears that most of the precipitation will fall as rain from Rochester, MN to southern Wisconsin, but north central Wisconsin could see some snow out of this system. If the low tracks to the slightest bit to the west from an east coast ridge block, then I do think the Twin Cities could see a snow/rain mixture or snow out of this system. If it is all snow, then we could end up with one to two inches.

The snow (magenta)/rain (green) “battle field” sets up across Minnesota:

For now, you’ll probably be keeping the snowblowers in the garage, but stay tuned for updates on this system!

October weather summary and November outlook

2011-11-02T08:14:00.001-05:00

October continued the warm and dry trend that has been ongoing since August. The average temperature in the Twin Cities during the month was 55.4 degrees, and was 6.5 degrees above normal. It tied for the seventh warmest October on record. While the month finished with near normal temperatures, the first half of the month was well above normal.

Other locations in Minnesota, such as St. Cloud, was 5.3 degrees above normal for the month with an average temperature of 51 degrees. At Rochester, the average was 53 degrees, and 4.6 degrees above normal. Duluth saw 48.5 degrees for an average temperature, and 5.3 degrees above normal. Here is a look at temperature trends compared to average from around the state:

As far as precipitation, the Twin Cities saw just seven tenths of an inch of rain, which is 1.73 inches below normal. On an annual basis, total precipitation is at 25.62 inches, and 2.12 inches below normal.

St. Cloud saw a bit more rain during the month with 1.42 inches of rain, which is 1.07 inches below normal. Rochester received .29 inches of precipitation, which was 1.95 inches below normal. It was the 5th driest October on record there. In Duluth, the city picked up 1.13 inches of precipitation, and was 1.72 inches below normal. Here is a look across Minnesota showing the percentage of normal amount of precipitation picked up. One would have to travel towards the international border just to find near normal monthly rainfall.

This lack of moisture has contributed to the drought that began towards the end of August. Since July 26th, most of the state has seen a deficit in liquid.

Southern Minnesota and areas across the Arrowhead of Minnesota are now classified as in a “severe” drought.

The outlook for November appears to be a broken record. The Climate Prediction Center is indicating chances of above normal temperatures during the month through much of the middle section of the country.

Precipitation chances are bit more uncertain as there is equal probabilities of average, above, or below normal situations.

It will be interesting to see how the month plays out, but early indications are it will be quite dry through at least the middle of the month. The long range models are not printing out any big storms for the Twin Cities, and temperatures do look to be mild during this time. The average temperature for November is 42 degrees and average precipitation is six hundredths of an inch.

20th anniversary of the Halloween Blizzard

2011-10-30T10:47:00.001-05:00

October 31, 1991 - It was the beginnings of a major snowstorm that significantly impacted Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin as a low pressure system developed near Galveston, Texas and strengthened over the Upper Midwest as it moved northward. The storm system had ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to work with, which resulted in high snow totals. During this long duration event, snow fell continuously for up to 72 hours, and at a rate of two to three inches per hour at times. Once the snow finally stopped, it would be one of the most impressive early season winter storms in history across the area.

While it was significant for residents of the Upper Midwest, much of the nation’s attention was turned to “The Perfect Storm”, a separate system brewing over the Eastern Seaboard. This east coast storm would become the subject of a novel written by Sebastian Junger, and later adapted into a Hollywood film. Having two exceptionally strong storm systems impacting the continental United States at the same time is quite rare. Depicted below is a plot of the Halloween storm system across the central United States from the National Weather Service in Duluth.

The "Halloween Blizzard" was made possible by a strong Arctic cold front that surged south through the central United States during the final days of October. The high temperature in the Twin Cities was 65 degrees on October 29th, more than ten degrees above normal. The next day high temperature in the Twin Cities dropped more than 30 degrees as the mercury reached 32 degrees. Here is an animated surface map between October 28 and November 3, 1991. Click for a larger image.

This would be a storm that caught meteorologists and the public off-guard. Early forecasts from the National Weather Service called for rain across central Minnesota on Halloween. As Halloween came, the forecast was adjusted for the anticipation of wintery weather with a winter storm watch issued by the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities at 4:00 AM for the potential of a foot of snow. Snow moved into southern Iowa during the day on October 30th, and then spread into northern Iowa and Minnesota early on October 31st. Warm air aloft wrapping around the low pressure area caused the snow to change into a mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain by mid-morning across portions of southern Minnesota and eastern Iowa. By 11:30 AM in the Twin Cities, snow began to fall, much earlier than anticipated, and a winter storm warning was issued soon after. Snow began in Duluth around 1:00 PM. Kids attempted to trick-or-treat with coats and boots, and pumpkins were covered with a snowy blanket. 8.2 inches of snow fell by midnight on Halloween at the Twin Cities International Airport. Not only was it a record amount for October 31st, but it was the most snow for the month of October ever in the Twin Cities.

As the calendar transitioned from October to November, the storm system intensified and the low pressure center moved to southeast Iowa by the morning. During the early morning hours, meteorologist Paul Huttner estimated about 12 to 15 inches of snow on the ground at 3:30 AM in Minnetonka as he left for work at WCCO-TV. Across the Twin Cities, snow removal became increasing difficult as the snow had started falling on warm pavement, melted, and then formed icy ruts on the roads as the liquid froze. Roads were described by some motorists as a “washboard”. The affects were paralyzing. 900 businesses and schools closed throughout Minnesota. No travel was advised by State Patrol.

A new snowfall record was set for November 1st as 18.5 inches fell at the Twin Cities International Airport, and one to three inches of ice accumulated from southwest Iowa to southeast Minnesota. It would be one of the costliest ice storms in Iowa's history as utility damage totaled $63 million, and 80,000 homes were without power. Crop damage was estimated around $5 million. In south central and southeast Minnesota, 11 counties were declared federal disaster areas due to the ice storm. Damage in Minnesota was $11.7 million.

On November 2nd, the storm became a blizzard when the low pressure center passed over Lake Superior, and created winds up to 50 MPH, with gusts to 60 MPH. Blizzard warnings were issued as visibilities were limited to near zero across eastern South Dakota, Minnesota, western Iowa, and extreme western Wisconsin. Blowing snow had been ongoing in Duluth since 2:00 PM on November 1st, and continued for 33 consecutive hours. The snow ended in southeast Minnesota, southwest Wisconsin, and northeast Iowa by midday. The Twin Cities picked up 1.1 inches of snow this day.

The heaviest snow ended by November 3rd as the area of low pressure eventually became occluded, and then dissipated as it pushed east into northern Ontario, Canada during subsequent days. Six tenths of an inch snow fell at the Twin Cities International Airport. Behind it, colder air filtered in. The temperature dropped to a low of -3 degrees at the Twin Cities International Airport on November 4th, the earliest below zero reading during the season since records began in 1872.

In the Twin Cities, the Halloween winter storm dropped 28.4 inches of snow, a record single storm total that still stands today. A record 21 inches of snow fell in a 24-hour period. Areas along the north shore of Lake Superior received over three feet of snow. 36.9 inches of snow fell on Duluth, a state record for storm total snowfall until 1994. Many areas from the Arrowhead region through south central Minnesota picked up at least a foot of snow.

During the peak of the storm, a 180 mile long stretch of Interstate 90 from the South Dakota border to Rochester, MN had been closed, and stranded motorists took shelter in Albert Lea. Unfortunately, this storm came with fatalities. At least 20 people died in Minnesota due to traffic accidents or heart attacks from digging out after the storm. In addition, two Wisconsin hunters died when their boat capsized on Lake Onalaska during the storm. The Halloween blizzard of 1991 was ranked number three by Minnesota’s climate community for significant Minnesota weather or weather-driven events of the 20th Century. Only the Dust Bowl of the 1930s and the Armistice Day Blizzard of 1940 were ranked higher.

Additional information on the Midwest Halloween storm:

Minnesota Climatology Working Group
National Weather Service – Duluth, MN
National Weather Service – La Crosse, WI
Minnesota Public Radio Updraft blog – Paul Huttner
Dr. Mark Seeley and Paul Huttner discuss the storm on Minnesota Public Radio’s Jet Streaming podcast from October 31, 2007. Click here to listen (MP3 format).
Excerpt of on-air storm coverage from WCCO-AM. Click here to listen (MP3 format). Audio provided by RadioTapes.com.

Cold enough for snow?

2011-10-15T11:37:00.001-05:00

Our stretch run of summer-like fall weather is over as we have returned to more seasonal temperatures across much of Minnesota.

This past Thursday and Friday temperatures were a bit more normal for the Twin Cities. Friday was also very windy with gusts as high as 39 MPH recorded at MSP. The October average temperature in the Twin Cities is 52.3 degrees.

Even cooler air will slide into the area early next week as a low pressure system over Hudson Bay in Canada brings a northwest flow of arctic air across the state. In the upper-levels of the atmosphere, temperatures will be below zero for snow creation. This may set the stage for the first dusting of snowfall, albeit it won’t last long with the ground still mildly warm, across the northern sections of Minnesota.

The GFS forecast model indicating precipitation-type to be snow across the arrowhead region of Minnesota Tuesday morning:

The GFS is also bit more aggressive with the snow chances and indicates possible accumulating snow towards Ely, MN. I don’t think it will be the half-inch to an inch as the GFS is indicating with the available moisture not being all that rich.

The European forecast model backs off a bit on the snow chances and generally indicates more flurries across northwestern Minnesota, as far south as Bemidji, during the first half of the day on Tuesday. I do tend to favor this solution with snow also possible across the arrowhead.

This won’t be a “pull out the snowblowers” type of situation, but it’s just another reminder that fall is here, and the snow season is around the corner!

The streak

2011-10-09T09:50:00.001-05:00

The Twin Cities have been on a run of 80-plus degree weather for the last several days. This has been the longest streak of 80 degree days in the Twin Cities in October since 1953.

Here are the high temperatures throughout the streak. The 88 degree reading on October 5th set a record for the day, breaking the previous record of 87 degrees set in 1879. 85 degrees on October 7th tied a record for the day.

Date	High temp (°F)
10/2/11	80
10/3/11	83
10/4/11	85
10/5/11	88
10/6/11	83
10/7/11	85
10/8/11	83
10/9/11	83?

I think we’ll see at least one more 80 degree day Sunday as highs top off at around 83 degrees. If we do reach at least 80 degrees, we will tie the 1953 stretch of consecutive 80-plus degree days with 8. With clouds moving in for Monday, it appears that the streak will be in jeopardy as temperatures peak into the upper 70s, which by no means is cool for this time of the year. By next weekend, highs will only reach the 50s in the Twin Cities and 40s outstate - a return to normal temperatures that is projected to last for at least the remainder of the month.

Record heat in October? Fire danger increases this week

2011-10-04T23:56:00.001-05:00

The very nice stretch continues this week as warm, dry weather is the main weather story across the state. We will be in the 80s through Friday before temperatures cool down a bit for the weekend and into next week.

We have a shot of breaking a 132-year-old record on Wednesday for high temperatures in the Twin Cities. The record is 87 degrees, set in 1879. Both the Twin Cities and southwest suburbs are projected to be around 88 degrees for the day.

Since the high was 85 degrees for Tuesday, and the models are projecting warmer air for Wednesday, I have no doubts that we should see temperatures approaching 90 degrees for a daytime high. It’s truly an amazing climatological feat considering the lower sun angles this time of the year.

The temperatures combined with the dry spell have set the state for fire conditions across much of southern and western Minnesota through Wednesday as a Red Flag Warning issued for approximately the western third of Minnesota.

So what is a Red Flag Warning? It’s an alert for dangerous fire conditions and issued by the National Weather Service when these criteria exist:

Sustained one-minute winds at standard 20 foot level are at or above 20 mph. However, in the Red River Valley of northwest Minnesota and in the southwest corner of the state sustained winds must be at or above 25 mph.
Minimum relative humidity at or less than 25 percent.
Temperatures at or greater than 75 degrees F. A “soft temperature threshold” used, mainly in
spring fire season.

According to Tom Romaine, fire supervisor south for the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR):

Unusually high temps and low humidity, combined with increasing winds are creating potentially dangerous fire conditions across much of our region. In the past 24 hours, many counties have put burning restrictions in place and some have banned recreational fires. It is important to for people to check with their county to see what restrictions exist.

Even if restrictions have not been posted in your county, great care should be taken with any outdoor fire right now.

The potential for crop field fires is also high right now. The low moisture content in corn and soybean fields creates a heightened fire danger. It is more important than ever for farmers to keep machinery clean, make sure guards are in place and carry a fire extinguisher.

Use extra caution with open flames through the end of the week. Only the slightest chance of rain returns overnight Saturday, but overall the next week looks rain-free.

September weather summary and October outlook

2011-10-02T23:23:00.001-05:00

Much like August, September will go down in the books as one of the driest for the month on record. In the Twin Cities, just 0.36 inches of rain fell at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, the least amount of precipitation recorded since observations were taken at the airport. This 2.72 inches below the normal amount for the month.

YEAR       PRECIPITATION TOTAL (INCHES)
---------------------------------------
2011                      0.36
1940                      0.41
1952                      0.42
2009                      0.46
1969                      0.49

It’s also the second driest September on record for the Twin Cities. The state was in a “blocking pattern” most of the month as an upper-level low became stationary over northern Illinois, cutting off the necessary moisture needed for rainfall.

For the first time since the middle of May, the Twin Cities is now below normal for annual precipitation:

Locally, across the southwest Twin Cities metro, it has been very dry. Flying Cloud Airport is about six inches of precipitation below normal.

Across southwest Minnesota, the story is the same. At Redwood Falls, the area is roughly seven inches of precipitation below normal.

Looking at the bigger picture, a good portion of Minnesota saw 50 percent or less of normal precipitation during the month. Only extreme northwestern Minnesota saw normal amounts.

As you might have guessed, the lack of rain has aggravated the drought situation further across the state with drought conditions now found across much of southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, and severe conditions in the arrowhead region.

As far as temperatures for the month, much of the state saw normal or above normal temperatures for the month.

In the Twin Cities, the average monthly temperature for September was 62.9°F degrees, which was 0.9°F above normal.

According to Dr. Mark Seeley, “Extreme temperatures for the month were: 94 degrees F at Madison, Canby, MSP, Redwood Falls, and Winona on September 1st; and just 19 degrees F at Embarrass, Wannaska, and International Falls on the 15th. Minnesota reported the nation's coldest temperature for the 48 contiguous states 4 times during the month: on the 15th, 16th, 17th, and 24th.”

Looking ahead to October, the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a warmer and wetter month across the state and the eastern half of the country:

Above average precipitation is being indicated across the state, however, the long-term models through the middle of the month are not squeezing out much precipitation during October.

Will we see snow in October? At least through mid-October, no. However, I’ll keep you updated on major weather systems as they approach the area. Like always, stay tuned!

RS

Thursday’s wind speeds and a new record for the Twin Cities

2011-10-02T09:27:00.001-05:00

This past week’s weather was notable for the gusty winds on Thursday. A strong pressure gradient from west to east across Minnesota, created by a low pressure center sitting out over the Great Lakes, was responsible for the winds. A well-mixed air mass and unidirectional winds also contributed to the strength.

Here is a map showing maximum wind speed from around the area:

Text listing of the highest recorded winds from September 29th and some reports from across the Twin Cities metro area:

1.  HANLEY FALLS       1220 PM SEP 29     56 MPH
2.  NEW ULM            1255 PM SEP 29     55 MPH
3.  MANKATO            1155 AM SEP 29     54 MPH
4.  1 SE CLEARWATER     247 PM SEP 29     53 MPH
4T. MINNEAPOLIS ASOS    409 PM SEP 29     53 MPH
4T. MONTEVIDEO         1154 AM SEP 29     53 MPH
4T. EAU CLAIRE ASOS    1227 PM SEP 29     53 MPH

...ANOKA COUNTY...

1 SW BLAINE             445 PM SEP 29     41 MPH
6 WNW FOREST LAKE       406 PM SEP 29     38 MPH
2 NW ANOKA              603 PM SEP 29     33 MPH

...CARVER COUNTY...

3 S CARVER             1149 AM SEP 29     41 MPH
1 ESE WATERTOWN         414 PM SEP 29     41 MPH

...DAKOTA COUNTY...

SOUTH SAINT PAUL       1054 AM SEP 29     51 MPH
3 WSW FARMINGTON       1234 PM SEP 29     48 MPH
2 WSW SOUTH SAINT PAUL 1251 PM SEP 29     45 MPH
1 SSW FARMINGTON       1012 AM SEP 29     37 MPH
2 NE LAKEVILLE          623 PM SEP 29     33 MPH

...HENNEPIN COUNTY...

CRYSTAL ASOS           1153 AM SEP 29     52 MPH
MINNEAPOLIS ASOS        409 PM SEP 29     53 MPH
FLYING CLOUD ASOS       453 PM SEP 29     41 MPH
1 SE MAPLE GROVE        456 PM SEP 29     41 MPH
1 WSW ROBBINSDALE      1102 AM SEP 29     39 MPH
4 ESE RICHFIELD         336 PM SEP 29     37 MPH
1 SW THE LAKE MINNETONK 432 PM SEP 29     36 MPH

...RAMSEY COUNTY...

SAINT PAUL ASOS         353 PM SEP 29     48 MPH
2 NNE SAINT PAUL        356 PM SEP 29     35 MPH

...SCOTT COUNTY...

4 ENE HENDERSON        1246 PM SEP 29     45 MPH
3 W NEW PRAGUE         1137 AM SEP 29     44 MPH
2 WSW PRIOR LAKE       1120 AM SEP 29     41 MPH
1 NW SHAKOPEE           343 PM SEP 29     38 MPH

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...

LAKE SAINT CROIX BEACH 1200 PM SEP 29     44 MPH
2 E LAKE ELMO          1055 AM SEP 29     39 MPH
3 N HASTINGS            516 PM SEP 29     37 MPH
2 N HASTINGS            422 PM SEP 29     37 MPH

Dr. Mark Seeley believes that a new wind record was set in the Twin Cities from a non-thunderstorm for September:

Indeed, 50 mph winds are unusual for the month of September unless they are downburst winds from a thunderstorm. Crystal Airport had a 52 mph wind gust on Thursday (Sept 29) and MSP International Airport reported a wind of 53 mph. The highest September wind gust I can find from MSP is 48 mph back in 2004. So a new non-thunderstorm wind speed record for the month of September was set here in the Twin Cities.

It was quite the amazing phenomenon that we experienced over the past week!

RS

StormChaser Schwartz hits milestone

2011-09-25T11:20:00.001-05:00

This blog hit 10,000 page views last week, and I would like to take time to say a quick thank you to everyone that has stopped by since February 2010. The success of this blog is entirely on you.

When I started this blog over a year and a half ago, I had no idea what kind of audience I would be able to generate over time. The blog has slowly evolved with enhancements, and now is a full-blown website. The latest addition to StormChaser Schwartz is automated weather warnings that will post on both the Facebook blog page and Twitter feed. Just another reason to “like” the Facebook page and follow the blog on Twitter!

RS

Minnesota Fall color chasing 2011

2011-09-25T10:58:00.001-05:00

On Friday, I took a day trip up to northern Minnesota to take in some of the fall colors that are now occurring.

My destination for this day was Bear Head Lake State Park, located about 15 miles southwest of Ely. It is right on the fridge of where the best colors are being indicated by the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources.

Here are some of the sights as I walked along the park’s Norberg hiking trail: (Click photos for larger images)

I ended the day by stopping at Split Rock Lighthouse State Park in Two Harbors along the north shore to grab some pictures of the lighthouse near sunset. Unfortunately, the clouds were pretty thick, but took some photos nonetheless:

I spent nearly 10 hours in car this day, but it was worth it to capture some of the best that nature has to offer. This only happens once in a year. With a quick peak color season possible this year, there is just the slightest window to get out and take it all in!

Freeze warning

2011-09-13T22:51:00.001-05:00

The first freeze warning of the fall/winter 2011 season is upon us earlier than usual for Thursday morning. According to the Midwestern Regional Climate Center, we are about three week behind schedule for the first 32-degree or lower temperature.

A Freeze Warning is in effect from 12:00 AM CDT Thursday until 8:00 AM CDT Thursday for the southwestern half of Minnesota with a Freeze Watch across the northern sections of Minnesota for the same duration.

As I mentioned in the previous post, this cool air will not stick around, and we’ll see these chilly temperatures vanish by late in the week/early next week when we return to seasonal norms.

Cool down coming, but will only be temporary

2011-09-12T19:55:00.001-05:00

Our extended summer looks like it will come to an end this week as a couple shots of artic air work their way into the Upper Midwest during the first half of the week. Monday’s high temperature in the Twin Cities topped off at 90-degrees, which is the third 90-degree plus reading this month. On September 1, MSP had a high of 94 and September 9 had a high of 90. Monday will be the final day of the a series of cold fronts move through the area.

Round one of the cool blast comes tonight and will drop temperatures nearly 20-degrees:

Round two happens Tuesday night as a secondary cold front moves through and may drop temperatures another 10-degrees.

Frost and freeze conditions may be possible across the Twin Cities on Thursday morning before we rebound back to seasonal temperatures next week in the 70s. This cool air is not sticking around.

It does look like we have seen our final 90s of the year and the end of summer-like weather. Looking ahead to the final weeks of September, early indications are that temperatures will predominately be near normal with 60s and 70s in the area.

Remembering 9/11

2011-09-11T09:32:00.001-05:00

I am going to stray off the usual weather topics with this blog post today. Since it is the 10th anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attacks, I thought it would a good time to reflect and look back to the day our country changed forever.

10 years ago, I was a college senior at the University of Wisconsin – Eau Claire. Rolled out of bed that morning thinking it was going to be just another ordinary day: going to class, working on homework, etc. Did not turn on the television before class, so I had no idea what was happening along the east coast at that moment. As I arrived at my 9 AM accounting class, I overheard chatter between students that something terrible occurred in New York City and there was damage to the World Trade Center building. Classmates were a bit shocked and confused over the event, that I still did not have all the details of what transpired. Nobody really wanted to talk about it. It was not until I could get to a computer between classes that I got a better context of the events that occurred on this tragic day, and later with the nightly news specials on television. I do not even remember if classes were cancelled that day. Just trying to comprehend the attacks seemed to fill my memory bank.

We were witnessing this generation’s Pearl Harbor attack. While trying to comprehend the magnitude and sadness over the loss of life, one thing was clear - this was an act of war. The images of the towers collapsing with the smoke and soot everywhere are still fused into my memory. Seeing people jump from windows to escape the World Trade Center, or else be burned, can’t be put into words. it changed how we view national security forever. No more “loosey-goosey”, lax policies. We lost a bit of freedom that we had to fight to get back. It made me realize that freedom is not free and it forever will be an on-going battle to retain it.

August weather summary and September outlook

2011-09-03T12:13:00.001-05:00

August 2011 will be primarily known as dry month with just three days of significant rain. In the Twin Cities, we finished with 3.03-inches of rain this month, which is 1.27 inches below normal. This disagrees with the Climate Prediction Center outlook for August, which projected higher wetter than normal chances.

Across the state, precipitation was at or below normal from roughly St. Cloud, southward. Some areas picked up half or less as much rain than normal.

With the lack of rain across the southern parts of the state, it has resulted in minor drought conditions. Dry conditions also persist across the arrowhead of Minnesota.

During the month, we saw temperatures into the 80s largely with really no hints of autumn in the air. Considering the snowy and cold conditions we experienced to begin the year, I think it’s safe to say we’ve appreciated what Mother Nature has brought us to conclude the end of the meteorological summer. In the Twin Cities, the average monthly temperature for August is 71.2-degrees, and we finished the month 2.4-degrees above normal. The Climate Prediction Center projected close to normal temperatures during the month.

Looking at temperature across the state during the month, most of the state was at normal or slightly above normal, with above normal numbers the highest north of the Interstate 94 corridor.

So what is September looking like? Temperatures are expected to be typical for the month. The average monthly temperature is 68-degrees.

We began September and the start to the meteorological fall with a high temperature of 94-degrees, which happened to be warmer than anything that occurred during August. Temperatures this week are expected to settle into a more fall-like pattern with highs between 70 and 80 through most of next week.

As far as precipitation chances go, a dry month is expected with high probabilities of below normal conditions.

If the forecast holds, our ground won’t have nearly the moisture content heading into the winter months as it did last year to alleviate some of the spring flooding concern. Fall flooding shouldn’t be a problem this year. Farmers will be hurt, however, with the lack of moisture for fall crop harvest season, such as pumpkins. This year’s apple crop is expected to be good due to abundant rainfall early to the year and sunshine late in the growing season, but still need rain for the crop to finish strong.

Summer is not over yet

2011-08-30T08:14:00.001-05:00

As August comes to a conclusion, summer weather is going to stick around a little longer across much of Minnesota, at least through this week. We’ll see the warmest temperatures this week on Thursday. Here is the temperature map as of 7 PM Thursday showing the warm air streaming northward:

The latest short-term NAM forecast model guidance indicates high temperatures on Thursday will be well into the 90-degree range and close to the century mark. For this late in the year, it’s quite an amazing feat to have temperatures this warm!

Along with the heat, humidity will return to the area later in the week. This will provide a better chance of thunderstorms as a cold front cuts through the state. With strong instability and wind shear in place, some severe weather will be possible later in the day on Thursday and into the overnight hours if the atmospheric cap can break. Rain amounts will be heavier traveling north where up to an inch of rain may fall across the arrowhead region of Minnesota.

Temperatures will drop considerably by the weekend with the frontal passage. We should see highs in the 60s and a touch of fall will be in the air as we begin September.

2011 Minnesota State Fair forecast

2011-08-23T22:41:00.001-05:00

The annual get-together, the Minnesota State Fair, kicks off Thursday and runs through Labor Day. Here is a look at the weather forecast for the first half of this year’s Fair.

Forecast model spaghetti plots - temperature and precipitation:

Thursday: Dry. High of 84 degrees.
Friday: Another nice day. Slightest chance of rain in the afternoon (10%). High near 90 degrees if we stay out of the clouds.
Saturday: Cooler, and not as humid. Dry. High of 75 degrees.
Sunday: Dry early, then a chance of thunderstorms late in the day during the evening. High near 75 degrees.
Monday: Chance of rain throughout the day (30%). High 72.

Enjoy the Fair!

2012 Minnesota Storm Chasing Convention

2011-08-20T09:35:00.001-05:00

Registration has opened for the 2012 Minnesota Storm Chasing Convention, organized by Michael Stanga and Dean Baron. It will take place on Saturday, January 14, 2012 at the Best Western Kelly Inn in Plymouth, Minnesota. I decided to skip this year’s convention, but I will be attending in 2012 as the keynote is none other than Reed Timmer. He is perhaps the most recognized and known storm chaser due in part to his appearance in Discovery Channel's weekly show, Storm Chasers, aired during the fall.

Tickets are $35 per person and are said to be limited to a first come, first serve basis. All proceeds will go to charities assisting tornado victims.

I attended the inaugural event at St. Cloud State University in 2010, and enjoyed it a lot as Dr. Josh Wurman was the keynote of this conference. Interesting and informative. With a couple years under it’s belt now, I suspect that January’s conference will be the best yet!

Thursday severe weather threat

2011-08-17T22:35:00.002-05:00

A few severe thunderstorms will be possible across northern sections of Minnesota during the latter part of Thursday. Instability and wind shear will be sufficient to support storms with large hail, strong winds, and perhaps an isolated tornado. The most widespread, intense storms should stay south and west of the state.

A threat for tornadoes exists in the Brainerd lakes area during the evening hours where wind velocity and shear is the greatest.

The Twin Cities area should remain dry with just a very small chance of a passing shower/thunderstorm. Should be another great day to go along with the majority of this week!

A few flooding reports coming in tonight

2011-08-16T20:15:00.010-05:00

Some flooding is being reported tonight across the north and northwest of the Twin Cities. Over two inches of rain has fallen in some parts of the metro in just over a couple hours.

Spring Lake Park [Anoka Co, MN] law enforcement reports FLASH FLOOD at 07:52 PM CDT -- road impassable due to high water at 81st and hwy 65.

Fridley [Anoka Co, MN] law enforcement reports FLASH FLOOD at 07:56 PM CDT -- university ave impassable due to high water between 73rd and osborne. local sewers are backing up due to excessive run off.

8 Nw Princeton [Mille Lacs Co, MN] law enforcement reports FLASH FLOOD at 06:02 PM CDT -- water washed over county road 6 near the intersection of county road 6 and 55th street. nearby culvert washed out.

Osseo [Hennepin Co, MN] law enforcement reports FLASH FLOOD at 07:12 PM CDT -- resedential street flooding in osseo. some roads impassable due to high water.

What can we learn from the Indiana State Fair stage collapse?

2011-08-15T08:06:00.003-05:00

This post is going to be a bit different. Instead of providing a forecast or sharing a storm chase, it will be a reflection and commentary on how we can prevent future weather-related incidents from occurring in the wake of a deadly concert stage collapse at the Indiana State Fair on Saturday night. With the Minnesota State Fair beginning in a couple weeks and the severe thunderstorm season ongoing across the Midwest, I felt this would be an appropriate time to reflect on the tragedy in Indiana, and understand what proactive measures can be taken to prevent similar incidents from occurring in the future.

The collapse was caused by high winds that moved into the fairgrounds from severe thunderstorms in the vicinity. As the winds reached the grandstand area where the stage was located, it is believed the winds were as high as 70 MPH. Here is video of the collapse as onlookers awaited for the arrival of the country singing group, Sugarland. Five people are known dead, and 45 were injured.

The storms were sparked by a cold front moving through the area during the evening hours on Saturday. Just before 6 PM local time, a severe thunderstorm watch was issued until early Sunday morning for central Indiana as a line of storms formed in Illinois and moved eastward.

As the storms continued east into central Indiana, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued for Marion County, and the Indianapolis area at 8:39 PM local time. The stage would collapse 10 minutes later, at 8:49 PM. Here is a radar loop of the storms moving into the Indianapolis area:

Damaging wind gusts were reported (actual ground truth) with the line of severe thunderstorms near Indianapolis. Winds of 70 MPH were recorded, just west of Indianapolis, at Speedway in Marion County, and 77 MPH at Plainfield in Hendricks County, west-southwest of Indianapolis. By rule, any winds over 70 MPH are considered destructive, and the National Weather Service usually goes with this wording in warnings where winds may reach this threshold. Just to compare straight-line winds to other natural hazards, hurricane-force winds are classified as 74 miles per hour or greater, and EF-0 tornadoes have winds between 65–85 MPH. Here is what radar looked like at 8:50 local time, one minute after initial reports of the concert stage collapsing. The strongest winds were just out in front of the leading edge of the thunderstorms that extends several miles - an outflow boundary, or “gust front”. I believe this is the aspect of the storm that caught the public off-guard.

According to Indiana State Police, State Fair personnel were in contact with the National Weather Service throughout the day for weather updates. In reviewing this timeline, communication between the fairgrounds and the local weather service appeared to be adequate as there was an awareness level that severe weather was possible during the day. This was followed up with additional updates of severe thunderstorm watches/warnings in effect for the area. There was advanced warning provided by the National Weather Service in Indianapolis. In fact, I thought the local weather service handled this night pretty well overall. Where the fault lies, in my opinion, is how the weather information was conveyed from State Fair officials to the general public. An announcement was made to concert attendees by Fair officials at 8:45, six minutes after the warning was issued, of severe weather present and where and when to seek shelter. Why was there such a delay in relaying this information? In the world of weather, six minutes is a long time, considering how quickly thunderstorms can move. In addition, according to The Indianapolis Star, officials did not officially call off the concert, thus thousands of anxious concert go-ers decided against heeding the warning:

But the weather near the Indiana State Fairgrounds was starting to get dicey. Backstage, State Police special operations commander Brad Weaver was watching an ugly storm moving in on radar via his smartphone. He and fair Executive Director Cindy Hoye decided it was time to evacuate the crowd.

But a minute later, when WLHK program director Bob Richards addressed the crowd, the word was that the show would go on, and that the crowd should be prepared to find shelter if things changed. Some of the crowd sensed the danger and left without further word. But the majority remained.

The severity of the thunderstorms was not communicated to the public properly, thus created a confusion as to whether it was necessary to evacuate since Fair officials determined the weather would not be turbulent enough to cancel a concert. Another issue I have is that State Fair operations likely had no idea of the actual wind reports received with this storm since they are not meteorologists. If they had tracked storm reports and knew winds in excess of 70 MPH were happening with this line of storms, I think their thought process would have changed a bit. Weather at the Fair was being monitored by a radar on a cell phone. Usually this kind of radar information available to cell phone users is basic, and doesn’t provide grand detail of what’s really going on. It can only tell you so much to an untrained eye, such as where storms are, but to a meteorologist, or someone experienced in the weather field, can interpret particular characteristics on radar. For example, the “wave” radar return ahead of a thunderstorm, indicating gusty winds with the outflow boundary. Meteorologists can tell you if a storm is rotating, or how fast winds may be moving looking at radar velocities. This radar loop assembled by AccuWeather details velocity winds heading into the fairgrounds at around 30 meters per second, or 67 MPH. If that’s enough wind to take down 100-year old trees, it can sure take down a temporary stage that acts like a wind trap.

There has been a growing trend of concerts operating during bad weather. It feels like the inevitable was going to happen sooner or later as the probabilities would eventually catch up. Unfortunately, it happened to be the Indiana State Fair where luck ran out. On August 6th, a stage collapsed because of severe weather before a Flaming Lips performance in Oklahoma. During the same weekend, Lollapalooza in Chicago narrowly escaped bad weather as the Foo Fighters were set to perform. In July, a severe storm toppled a stage in Ottawa, Canada when classic rock band Cheap Trick was performing. Closer to home, severe weather nearly affected people gathered at Huber Park in Shakopee to watch a fireworks display on August 6th as part of the city’s Derby Days (my take on the situation posted at The WeatherDesk here).

This was no “fluke” incident that I have heard some meteorologists and elected public officials use. We need to stop putting lives in danger and focus on public safety during weather events. It should not take deaths for change to be made. During my career working in the corporate world, I have learned over the years from management that it’s always better to be proactive rather than reactive. A situation like this could have been avoided if practices and policies were changed for dealing with severe weather. Here are a couple of my recommendations:

A severe thunderstorm warning that affects the event location should be enough to postpone an event until the weather has passed, regardless if there is ground verification of severe weather from spotter networks.
An on-site meteorologist or a private/public meteorologist team should be monitoring conditions 24/7 during the duration of the event, and be in constant communication with event officials since weather can change at a moment’s notice. We need people trained in the field of weather to call the shots that understand and can interpret weather conditions. Hazardous weather alerts should be transmitted as they are received so individuals have the maximum amount of time to prepare for bad weather.
For outdoor event attendees, make sure you have a means for receiving weather alerts (i.e. automated text messaging through services such as CellWarn). Ultimately, it’s up to each individual to look out for their own safety. If you are attending an outdoor event and receive notification of severe weather in the area from event personnel or through your own channel, you should assume the worst and seek shelter in a sturdy building. It’s better to be safe and live another day. It’s also important to be up-to-date on weather conditions before heading out the door, and have an expectation for what may happen later in the day. In our information age, there’s really no reason why someone should be unaware of the day’s weather forecast.

With the Minnesota State Fair coming up, I really hope we don’t come close to seeing a repeat of what happened in Indiana. Injuries and deaths from an incident like this at one event is one occurrence too many.

Heading into the Dog Days of summer

2011-08-11T19:07:00.001-05:00

As you may have noticed, July happened to be a warmer than normal and very humid. By my count, more than 80% of July days had high temperatures above normal. The summer has been unusually muggy with 274 hours of dew points of 70 degrees or higher recorded this season as of August 1, 2011. The record is 512 hours, set in 2002.

What is responsible for the warmer and moist air mass? We are in a “Ring of Fire” weather pattern. No, it doesn’t have anything to do with a Johnny Cash song or earthquakes. Rather, it’s a dome of high pressure, created from longer and stronger daylight, dominating the southern states (and bringing along with it record drought to Texas). Minnesota resided at the edge of this dome ridge, with the jet stream riding along it that brought rain and some severe weather to the area. With the jet stream so far north, Gulf moisture was able to surge all the way up into the Upper Midwest, which made our climate feel tropical for an extended length of time.

As we venture into August, we have witnessed a cold front move through this week that brought humidity and temperatures into a more comfortable level. 90-degree temperatures appear to be a thing of the past as we transition into a cooler weather pattern. With the cooler weather pattern, severe weather season will begin to wind down quickly over the next few weeks. However, until about mid-October, severe thunderstorms can never be ruled out completely across the state because of air mass clashes with the changing of the seasons.

For those that enjoy the hotter conditions, we should see 80-degree temperatures return in about a week, and perhaps some mid-80s as the Minnesota State Fair begins at the end of this month. We are in that period where the weather will have something for everyone – a little bit of summer and fall.

Forecast models put severe storms across central Minnesota today

2011-08-06T08:32:00.001-05:00

Thunderstorms will be found Saturday along a frontal boundary that stretches across central sections of Minnesota.

While instability will be modest, there will be enough wind shear (40 to 50 knots) to generate supercells that may eventually evolve into a complex of strong to severe thunderstorms.

A couple of the high resolution forecast models are in agreement of showing thunderstorm activity later this evening across central Minnesota. Here is how the models are depicting storms at 7 PM today:

It appears the greatest threat for severe weather will be from the St. Cloud to Brainerd area today. This activity will push through the state by early Sunday morning, and bringing with it a pleasant day.

Anyone heading up to the cabin later today should keep these forecasts in mind. Being caught on the lake is the last place you want to be during a thunderstorm.

July weather summary and August outlook

2011-08-03T08:01:00.001-05:00

The month of July will go down as hot and very muggy. The Twin Cities experienced a record three consecutive day period of dew points of 80-degrees or higher. On July 19, a record maximum dew point in the Twin Cities was established of 82 degrees at 3 PM. The dew point actually reached a higher mark at 84-degrees, however, this was in-between hourly observations, and therefore not recorded. At MSP, from count, high temperature were at or above average for 26 of the 31 days in the month

Temperatures were above normal as was predicted by the Climate Prediction Center in their June outlook. At Minneapolis, the average temperature during the month was 78.8°F, normal temperature of 73.2°F for a departure of 5.6-degrees above normal. At St. Cloud, the numbers were still above average. The average temperature for the month was 75.1°F, with a normal average temperature of 69.8°F for a departure of 5.3-degrees above normal.

This July had the fifth warmest average temperatures on record, according to the National Weather Service:

With the heat, saw plenty of rain during the month due to storm systems repeatedly moving throughout the area. Many places in the state were at or above normal for precipitation. At Minneapolis, 5.23-inches of rain fell, with an average of 4.04-inches for the month that equates to 1.19-inches of rain above normal. St. Cloud was even wetter with 5.63-inches of rain, compared to an average of 3.34-inches of rain for 2.29-inches above normal. These rainfall amounts are consistent with the Climate Prediction Center June outlook.

Looking ahead to August, temperatures will be more seasonal for late summer. Cooler air stays to the west, while the south continues to scorch in the heat.

Our rain that stuck around will linger into August. Chances for above normal precipitation exists for the southwestern two-thirds of Minnesota.

Enjoy the dog days of summer! It’s sad to think that summer is almost over after the warmth arrived late this year.

Overnight severe weather threat?

2011-08-01T20:22:00.001-05:00

Some of the latest RUC forecast model guidance is indicating very strong severe weather parameters in place across far western Minnesota, near the triple-border point of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota. While it may be a bit overdone, there’s quite of bit of dynamics in place for explosive thunderstorms.

Checking some of the observations around the state, dew points have climbed back up near or into the 80s across this area! That’s tropical!

Storms are expected to push through the state overnight along a cold front with severe weather possibilities maintained throughout the duration.

Make sure your weather radio alert is set to “on” tonight. It could be quite active!

Strong thunderstorms today?

2011-07-31T11:52:00.004-05:00

There appears to be a marginal set up today for strong to severe thunderstorms along a narrow corridor across central Minnesota. Any storms that do pop, are working in a favorable environment of 30 to 40 knot winds to intensify. Large hail and strong winds are the primary threats. I really don’t see much tornado potential out of this. Storm coverage is expected to be isolated.

The high resolution WRF-NMM forecast model, which was pretty darn good at handling the storm activity yesterday, although I failed to buy into what it was displaying, is showing some stronger activity near the Twin Cities metro by the evening hours.

Anyone with outdoor plans might want to keep an eye to the sky today for changing weather conditions!

Recap of Saturday storms

2011-07-31T11:16:00.009-05:00

Saturday was an interesting day for thunderstorm activity. Morning storms over northern Minnesota, triggered by a slow-moving cold front, really wreaked havoc on the forecast for the remainder of the day due to the complexities of the situation with cloud clover and boundaries established from previous storms. If I can be honest, it was one of those days where I really had no idea where storms would fire, and if they would become severe. I like being straight-forward with people, and I’ll be the first to admit I was wrong about something. I knew the possibility of storms across the northland in the morning, which would eliminate the greatest threat for severe weather over that area where upper-level winds were the strongest for organized storms.

Here a satellite image from around the noon hour Saturday. With the cloud cover, the best chance for any severe storms appeared to be over the southern half of Minnesota.

The National Weather Service in Chanhassen put together this illustration showing the position of fronts and boundaries later in the day at approximately 4:45 PM:

The Storm Prediction Center wasn’t really sure about this day either. It had issued a severe thunderstorm watch during the early afternoon hours until 9 PM for southern Minnesota, then cancelled it soon after, and re-issued another watch in the evening until 1 AM Sunday.

Initial severe thunderstorm watch:

The “do-over” of the watch:

With all the complications to the forecast, and with the storms working in a weaker wind environment, I decided against storm chasing in the afternoon, and instead worked on some projects around home. Although it’s an interesting puzzle to attempt to solve, I didn’t want to sit around idle and wait to see what would happen, if anything did. With the price of gas these days, it just didn’t make a lot of sense for this level of uncertainty either.

First storms arrive into the Brainerd lakes area before 6 PM:

As the storms moved to the southeast from Brainerd, the most intense storms were over Mille Lacs and Isanti Counties, where numerous funnel clouds were reported. Here are radar summaries north of the Twin Cities from the National Weather Service.

Base reflectivity:

Base velocity:

Areas of the greatest rotation are indicated by the darker colors below. Based on what I saw on radar, I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a brief tornado touchdown near the Mille Lacs and Kanabec County border, east of Milaca. A storm survey is being conducted in this area to determine if there were tornadoes.

As day progressed into the night, I decided to make a play at the storms to the west of the “main event” after 10 PM.

I headed out west on Minnesota Highway 5 towards Carver County, and intercepted the storms in Norwood-Young America. Saw a pretty good lightning display from these garden-variety storms. I captured some video from my cell phone as I was driving around the town. The audio is WCCO Radio.

Severe storm reports from the day were scattered, with the most concentrated area from the cell that tracked southeast from Brainerd into the northern Twin Cities metro with large hail, felled trees from strong winds, and funnel clouds. One tornado was reported in the city of Johnson, Minnesota in far west-central Minnesota from a short-lived storm.

Severe thunderstorm watch in effect

2011-07-30T13:51:00.002-05:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the following counties in Minnesota until 9:00 PM CDT for Anoka, Blue Earth, Brown, Carver, Chippewa, Chisago, Dakota, Goodhue, Hennepin, Isanti, Kandiyohi, Lac qui Parle, Le Sueur, McLeod, Meeker, Nicollet, Pope, Ramsey, Redwood, Renville, Rice, Scott, Sherburne, Sibley, Stearns, Steele, Stevens, Swift, Waseca, Washington, Watonwan, Wright, and Yellow Medicine

Stay tuned!

Severe thunderstorm watch for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota

2011-07-26T23:21:00.001-05:00

A severe thunderstorm watch was issued by the Storm Prediction Center until 6 AM Wednesday for Anoka, Benton, Blue Earth, Brown, Carver, Dakota, Faribault, Freeborn, Goodhue, Hennepin, Kandiyohi, Le Sueur, Martin, McLeod, Meeker, Nicollet, Ramsey, Redwood, Renville, Rice, Scott, Sherburne, Sibley, Stearns, Steele, Waseca, Washington, Watonwan, and Wright Counties.

Having said that, I believe that the biggest weather maker overnight will be torrential rains. Radar estimates indicate one to two inches of rain per hour over far west-central Minnesota. Some gusty winds may accompany these storms that approach severe levels, but overall the setup is marginal for severe thunderstorms. You might be awaken to some claps of thunder, which may make for a shortage of sleep for some.

Severe weather and heavy rains possible in next 24 hours

2011-07-26T07:36:00.002-05:00

A bout of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain look to be on tap for Tuesday across Minnesota.

A warm front is slowly projected to move eastward from the Dakotas into the western part of Minnesota by the evening hours:

Along the southern periphery of the progressing warm front is where the greatest instability will be in place, setting the stage for isolated thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. No widespread outbreaks expected, and the tornado risk is small, with the best chance across central Minnesota. During the afternoon, northeast South Dakota will be in line for severe weather first in the vacinity of the warm front, and as the front shifts to the east, southwest Minnesota will see the chances for strong to severe storms after 7 PM. The Twin Cities should see storms by around midnight, or shortly thereafter.

The models are also indicating heavy rain across northern Minnesota through Wednesday night. Anywhere from one to two inches of rain may fall from the storms as they pass through the area.

Most of Minnesota is already near normal for precipitation. It's areas across the southern United States that need the rain the most as a historic drought is ongoing. Texas is experiencing it’s third-worst drought since 1895.

Stay tuned to StormChaser Schwartz through the day for further developments!

So what happened with the Saturday weather?

2011-07-24T10:46:00.012-05:00

I can’t believe that I’m actually writing a blog entry on what went wrong (read: bust) with the severe weather set up on Saturday, considering that everything was in place going into the day for a potentially explosive event. Instability was off the charts, there was a cold front, with good temperature contrast, moving through to provide lift, and favorable wind shear for some rotating supercells.

Don’t get wrong, I’m glad nothing major happened close to the Minneapolis-St. Paul metro area with the Twins game played during the afternoon and followed by the U2 concert at night. Chalk it up to another goofy weather day in 2011. I’ve never seen a spring/summer storm season as bizarre as this one. You might as well throw out the textbooks this year, because the classic set ups for storms just don’t seem to work this year. Many head-scratching moments.

I have two theories that prevented a severe weather outbreak yesterday:

1. Morning convection

During the morning hours, a line of thunderstorms moved through central and southern Minnesota. Some of the stronger storms produced hail up to 1.25-inches near Cold Spring in the St. Cloud area, and winds strong enough to down trees across the southeast part of the state.

Radar image of the storms just after 7 AM Saturday:

Radar summary of the line of storms moving across southern Minnesota during the morning hours:

These initial storms created boundaries – pockets of cooler air trapped in the atmosphere, which can be tapped for later storm development. This would throw a wrench into forecasting the intensity and coverage of thunderstorms for later in the day. Here’s the radar summary from the entire day. Notice how storms develop late in the day near the metro in the area where the morning storms occurred:

2. Cloud cover

After the storms had passed in the morning, I made the decision around 12:30 PM to drive west on US-212 towards Olivia, and north on US-71 to Willmar, thinking there would be some decent storm development during the afternoon with no cloud cover to interrupt diurnal heating.

It was looking so promising before 2 PM that even the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) was indicating the likelihood of a weather watch box being issued – probably a tornado watch, based on the red outline the SPC used for the southern half of Minnesota and portions of Iowa and South Dakota. In the world of weather, tornado watches are sometimes referred to as “red boxes” and severe thunderstorm watches are “blue boxes”.

My hopes of seeing a supercell and perhaps a tornado quickly vanished about an hour later as I could see a cloud layer, with no precipitation, off in the distance that formed and was moving to the east as I got closer to Olivia. This pretty much killed any severe weather threat for the day as the clouds would cap any serious storms from firing.

That’s just a brief summary of what took place yesterday that nullified the severe weather threat. It’s difficult to win over people when I was promoting the likelihood of severe weather during the day and nothing happened. Hopefully, I didn’t alter your plans too much for nothing. It’s just one of those frustrating days as to why things don’t work out the way they should have on paper.

Saturday AM update

2011-07-23T08:17:00.001-05:00

Thunderstorms are on-going this morning across central Minnesota out ahead of a trough. This will be round one of a two part storm event for the state today. These morning thunderstorms will leave boundaries of cooler air for the late day storms to work with as the cold front marches east during the evening hours.

Looking at the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model runs, it appears the greatest risk areas for severe thunderstorms are in the same general areas as I highlighted from my blog entry from late last night. The greatest severe weather risk is highlighted below.

The tornado threat area is also in the same vicinity across north-central Minnesota, about 50 miles north/south of a Brainerd, Minnesota east/west line.

One of the high-resolution models puts the storms into the Twin Cities right around 7 PM tonight. This is also in agreement with several of the various models out there.

You’ll want your NOAA Weather Radio alert to be set today as it does appear more and more likely that severe weather will be imminent into the latter part of the day. I’ve been trying to bring attention to this weather event over the last couple days, so hopefully many people will be sky aware and paying attention to weather developments later on today.

Severe Weather Saturday

2011-07-22T23:24:00.002-05:00

Saturday is shaping up to be a stormy one across Minnesota during the afternoon and evening hours as a cold front will move through the state and be positioned in Wisconsin by early Sunday morning. It will bring with it a drop in high temperatures between Saturday and Sunday by 10-degrees, and a noticeable dip in dew points into the comfortable 50s. Unlike most of the weather setups during the late spring into the summer, this one will be more of a textbook setup. Here is the surface analysis at 7 PM Saturday:

Ahead of the cold front, temperatures will be in the low to mid-90s with dew points in the mid-70s. This will create a very unstable atmosphere for the cold front and associated low pressure area to work with during the day. Highlighted below is the greatest risk area for severe thunderstorms. It covers about the southern two-thirds of the state. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat in this area.

This is roughly the same outline where the Storm Prediction Center indicated a slight risk of severe weather for Saturday in it’s Day 2 outlook, issued at 12:30 PM Friday.

The strongest wind shear will be along the northern periphery of the severe risk area, roughly between Brainerd and St. Cloud, Minnesota.

That area in the north-central part of Minnesota will see the risk of tornadoes with wind shear values in the 60 to 70 knots range. That’s a lot of speed, folks!

U2 concert goers heading to TCF Bank Stadium on the University of Minnesota campus should pay close attention to the skies Saturday night and head for shelter if skies appear threatening. I have plans to attend another concert that night, but I will likely be out watching the storms as they approach the Twin Cities. Having nearly 60,000 people packed into an outdoor stadium with severe weather looming is a worst nightmare to anyone associated with weather and public safety. However, if spotters and chasers are able communicate and collaborate effectively with weather service and media personnel, then providing advanced warning should go off without a hitch. One positive working in emergency managers’ favor is that the tornado threat appears to be away from the metropolitan area, and outdoor concert events.

Stay safe, and have a great weekend!

Why no tornado with “hook echo” on Tuesday storms?

2011-07-21T07:31:00.001-05:00

During the morning hours of Tuesday, July 20th, a supercell thunderstorm tracked from the Brainerd area southeastward through the Twin Cities.

As the storm ascended on the Twin Cities metro, it began to show instances of hook echoes on radar. A hook echo is an indicator of tornado development. Here is a radar image that the National Weather Service in Chanhassen put together of a hook appendage in northwestern Anoka County at 10:45 AM. No tornado reports with this, but there was a public report of a funnel cloud about 15 minutes later at 11:02 AM in Maple Grove near the Interstate 494 and 694 junction.

Radar was not picking up real strong rotation with this storm on the velocity scans that detect wind from different directions. This may have been one of the reasons why a tornado warning was not issued:

At first, I believed the funnel report was legitimate based on what I was seeing on radar at the time. However, as I was able to analyze the storm dynamics later, and seeing the storm first hand over my lunch break at work, I began to discredit the report. It appears the funnel was mistaken for the low, ragged clouds present with this storm. These are called scud clouds, which are nothing more than scary looking “junk” clouds that pose no immediate threat. This can often fool an untrained eye.

The sky also grew massively dark as the large cell completely covered the sunlight from the east, and it made people aware there was something brewing off in the distance. Here is video I found on YouTube of the storm as it rolled through:

The supercell with another apparent hook, as it appeared on radar, tracking through the Minneapolis and St. Paul downtowns and southward towards the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport at 11:59 AM:

Again, radar was not showing any areas of tight rotation with this storm on the velocity image that detects wind from different directions. The storm was a little better organized than earlier, but still no indicators of danger. It’s difficult for National Weather Service personnel to issue a tornado warning when there is no real evidence of a developing tornado. Although it’s best to err on the side of caution, you don’t want a “cry wolf” scenario to develop, and no one ends up heeding the warning. When NEXRAD was installed in the mid-90s to replace archaic World War II basic radar technology, velocity scans were one of the radar products introduced that provided clues to meteorologists as to the areas of greatest rotation that could eventually lead to tornado development.

So we had the classic “hook” show up on radar, but why wasn’t there any rotation? Wind shear was not particularly strong this day as values were 40 knots across the thunderstorm area. For tornadoes to form, strong sheer must be present. In terms of speed, typically wind shear in excess of 40 knots is a good starting point. Although the image below is from later in the day at 5 PM, it is fairly representative of the wind shear present (noted in black) throughout the day on Tuesday. Shear was between 30 and 40 knots during the day across most of Minnesota.

The Storm Prediction Center noted in it’s 7:30 AM outlook the primary threats as large hail and damaging winds across Minnesota, but veering winds brought an isolated tornado threat to the area.

DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG /I.E. LESS THAN 35 KT/...HOWEVER VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.

Due to the weaker wind shear, the storm reports received throughout the day where primarily from damaging winds across central Minnesota and western Wisconsin, but some hail reports were mixed in as well:

Hopefully this post helps explain why the storm was more impressive on radar, and that it had more “bark than bite”. Had better wind shear been present, a main ingredient for tornadoes, this could have been a very dangerous situation with perhaps a tornado near St. Paul and MSP airport. I don’t believe Minneapolis and St. Paul proper have been hit by different tornadoes in the same year. In my opinion, we dodged another close call for metropolitan storms in what would have been another bullet point in this whacky year of weather extremes that is 2011!

Unbelievable heat!

2011-07-19T22:02:00.001-05:00

Some of the most tropical air the state has ever seen is ongoing this week. Heat indices well over 110°F has been common place across a good chunk of the area. It's not been so much the temperature as it has been the humidity. At the 3 PM hour on Tuesday, July 19, 2011, a new dew point record was established at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport with a reading of 82°F! This breaks the old dew point record set back on July 30, 1999 of 81°F. This kind of humidity is very rare around here. Our dew point is typically 75°F or less. The heat indices should subside by Thursday.

Using my professional-calibrated handheld Kestrel weather unit, I went outside my home shortly after 7 PM, and took a heat index reading of nearly 118°F! Yes, even at that time of the day, it was still quite warm, thanks to a dew point reading around 81°F.

Tomorrow won't have 120°F heat indices, but you'll still want to exercise caution outdoors. Use some common sense and live for another day. Heat is nothing to mess with.

Severe storms approaching the Twin Cities

2011-07-17T23:39:00.002-05:00

A severe thunderstorm is rolling through western Minnesota, nearly parallel with Interstate 94, with large hail and strong winds associated with it. This is a thunderstorm complex that moved from North Dakota earlier and the day.

The storm should be into the heart of the metro around 1 AM or soon after. Expect rumbles of thunder, gusty winds, and hail as it moves through. The atmosphere is still very unstable, so I don’t see the intensity letting up any time soon. It appears the southwest Twin Cities metro will get the brunt of it.

Stay alert for possible warnings shortly!

Near record dew point today in MSP?

2011-07-17T09:10:00.004-05:00

Looking at some of the projected dew point temperatures for Sunday, Minneapolis-St. Paul will be very close to hitting the all-time record of 81-degrees on July 30, 1999. The short-term forecast model, the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC), has done a good job at projecting temperatures and dew points, and will use it's projections. Earlier this morning, it was indicating an unbearable dew point value of 81-degrees just around sunset.

Looking at the latest data, the RUC has now indicates a dew point around 83-degrees around 10 PM! The Global Forecast System (GFS) also hints at 80-plus degree dew points, but it’s generally not reliable in the short-term, and I don’t put much stock in it within 24 hours of an event.

Based on the 9 AM temperature and dew point observations around the Twin Cities, it is quite possible that there will be areas that see dew points in the low 80s later on today. At MSP airport, the temperature is already 85-degrees, with a dew point at a very sticky 77-degrees!

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP
TWIN CITIES    MOSUNNY   85  77
ST PAUL        SUNNY     84  79
CRYSTAL        MOSUNNY   85  78
BLAINE         SUNNY     82  79
EDEN PRAIRIE   SUNNY     85  79
LAKEVILLE      SUNNY     82  77
SOUTH ST PAUL  SUNNY     84  77
LAKE ELMO      PTSUNNY   82  79

With the higher dew points, I’m going to knock my temperature forecast down a degree and go with a high temperature of 97-degrees for Sunday. Heat indices will be in excess of 105-degrees for most of the day, so you’ll want to find a cool place quickly. This type of weather leads to heat exhaustion quickly, and I don’t recommend ANY physical outdoor activity today. Stay indoors.

That’s hot!

2011-07-16T12:00:00.001-05:00

A tremendous amount of heat will be arriving into Minnesota within 24 hours, and will last for several days. Temperatures will be well into the 90s through Wednesday of next week with high humidity. Dew points will above 70-degrees, making it feel quick sticky out there. This combination will lead to dangerous heat index values above 100-degrees. As a result, the National Weather Service in Chanhassen has issued an Excessive Heat Warning for the Minnesota counties and a few Wisconsin counties the office serves until 9 PM Wednesday. Additional Wisconsin counties are expected to be added by this afternoon.

... Excessive heat warning remains in effect until 9 PM CDT
Wednesday...

An excessive heat warning remains in effect until 9 PM CDT
Wednesday.

* Temperature... afternoon highs in the lower to middle 90s with low temperatures in the middle to upper 70s

* heat index... 105 to 110 degrees in the afternoon and early
evening.

* Impacts... these hot and humid conditions will lead to a
heightened risk of heat related stress and illnesses.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible... reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work... the occupational safety and health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency... call 9 1 1.

An excessive heat warning means that a prolonged period of
dangerously hot temperatures will occur. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a dangerous situation in which heat illnesses are likely. Drink plenty of fluids... stay in an air-conditioned room... stay out of the sun...and check up on relatives and neighbors.

Looking at the overnight NAM models, here is the temperature map for Sunday showing the bulk of hot air surging northward. Click the image below to enlarge. Temperatures will be very close to 100-degrees for southern Minnesota. For the Twin Cities, my thinking is that the high temperature will top off at around 98-degrees. This will be dependent on the amount of cloud cover in the area, which can be difficult to predict days in advance.

Monday is looking quite steamy as well with another day of temperatures in the upper 90s. Click the image below to enlarge.

The National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Prediction Center heat index forecast indicates heat index values hitting 110-degrees in Minneapolis-St. Paul (MSP) on Monday.

Interpreting forecast data, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center believes MSP has a 62% chance of seeing heat index values in excess of 105-degrees during the day on Monday.

Make sure to drink plenty of water and your A/C is tuned and ready to go with the heat index likely in excess of 105-degrees!

Dry Sunday with heavy rains possible overnight

2011-07-10T10:32:00.001-05:00

Another warm and sticky day is on tap for Sunday as temperatures will soar into the 90s with dew points in the low 70s. A cold front will move in from the Dakotas and stall over the central part of Minnesota during the overnight hours into Monday.

The stalled front will lead to rainfall amounts around one inch with some isolated higher amounts northwest of the Twin Cities metro.

The severe weather set up appears to be better defined going into Sunday, but I’m expecting the severe weather to stay well to the west and south of Minnesota. Highlighted below is the area where I believe the greatest concentration of severe weather will occur. High winds and large hail will be possible across the entire area of severe risk. A tornado threat will exist across northeast South Dakota, around the Aberdeen area, due to higher wind shear values forecasted into Sunday night.

As the storm activity crosses the border into Minnesota from South Dakota, the storm will evolve into a complex or line, referred to as a mesoscale convective system (MCS). This will trigger the heavy rains that the forecast models are indicating around the midnight hour across the central portion of Minnesota. We may be dealing with additional flash flood warnings. Stay tuned!

Shelf cloud vs. Wall cloud: Part Deux

2011-07-08T07:24:00.001-05:00

Due to an overwhelming response to the Weather 101: Shelf cloud vs. Wall cloud post, I’ve decided to post some additional shelf cloud and wall cloud examples that were supplied to me with permission by fellow weather enthusiasts to illustrate proper cloud identification.

Each cloud type has different characteristics to provide clues as to what kind of weather can be expected in the short-term, so accuracy is important. As discussed in the original post, an approaching shelf cloud is a strong indication of very gusty straight-line winds that can pose a safety hazard. Straight-line winds have been known to reach or exceed 100 MPH, which is equivalent to an EF-1 tornado! A nearby wall cloud means residents should be prepared to take cover. Wall clouds are typically rotating, and are sometimes a pre-cursor to funnel clouds, which may eventually produce a tornado if the funnel extends all the way to the ground.

Wall cloud examples:

Michael Thompson took this photo of a wall cloud near Crookston, MN on July 4, 2011. Notice the distinct lowering of the cloud base. (For great storm photos, I recommend following Michael’s blog. His photos are professional, high quality.)

Wall cloud approaching downtown St. Paul, Minnesota from June 21, 2011. Video by David Blume, KD0IRF.

Shelf cloud examples:

Michael Thompson took this photo of a shelf cloud rolling in near MSP airport on July 1, 2011.

Video shot by Michael Thompson of a shelf cloud approaching MSP airport on July 1, 2011.

As I was discussing this matter with Michael, he pointed out that a shelf cloud looks like a huge wall coming at you. This is very true, and a big reason why the mistake in identity happens. Hopefully, this additional media makes it easier to understand the differences between a shelf and wall cloud, so when severe weather occurs close to your neighborhood, you will know what kind of weather to expect! I would like to personally thank Michael and David Blume for their outstanding contributions on this topic. It’s amazing what a little collaboration and help among weather enthusiasts can do. We all learn from each other, and in turn, it becomes a tighter knit group. I cherish what I have learned from weather spotters, chasers, and enthusiasts that I have encountered over the last few years. It’s truly amazing.

July outlook and a look back at June

2011-07-07T07:52:00.002-05:00

(Between the 4th of July holiday weekend and going out on two storm chases already this month, I never got around to putting together a June summary and July outlook until now.)

The month of June saw a hot start as temperatures soared well above average during the first eight days of the month, including the 103-degree reading in Minneapolis on June 7, before settling into a normal pattern for the remaining majority of June. As far as temperatures, June turned out to be pretty typical even though we did not see many 80+-degree readings over the course of the 30 days.

In Minneapolis, the average temperature for June was 69.5°F, which was 1.1°F above normal. Areas north and west of the Twin Cities metro finished the month with cooler than normal temperatures, which is right in line with the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast for June. St. Cloud finished slightly above normal with temperatures 0.2°F above the average of 65.3°F.

While we began the spring with a lot of rain, June was a dryer month for much of central Minnesota. Rainfall was more than a half-inch deficit from normal in many spots. This was actually welcome relief for farmers to help with saturated fields that led to slower crop growth. Minneapolis finished with 5.28 inches of rain, which was 0.94 inches above normal. St. Cloud saw a little more than half of that, coming in with 2.87 inches, which was 1.64 inches of rain below normal. This contradicts the CPC precipitation forecast for June of above average rainfall for the state.

What does July have in store? Looking at the CPC forecast, it appears we will see more seasonal summer weather with temperatures closer to July normals. The effects of La Nina have since been long gone, and that should help temperatures begin to trend upwards.

According to the CPC, we should also see quite a bit of precipitation. A good chunk of the state is expected to see well above normal rainfall. This agrees with some of the model data I’ve been looking at through the middle of July. It appears the weather pattern will be more unsettled and the state will see storm system after storm system work their way across the state.

Between now and the 15th of the month, it is possible that parts of the state could see at least one or two episodes of severe weather. For a relatively quiet severe weather season in terms of the number of outbreaks we had, we may make up for it this month with the summer-like temperatures expected. The cooler temperatures so far this year has prevented widespread severe weather events from occurring. It will be something to keep and eye on.

This is also a good opportunity to stress the importance of having NOAA Weather Radio as an alert device in your home to keep you safe from natural disasters. RadioShack has many models available, from desktops to outdoor handhelds, are usually in-stock. Midland Radio and Reecom are two other manufacturers I recommend. A feature I highly recommend when looking for a weather radio is one with S.A.M.E. technology. This will allow to select which county or counties you would like to be alerted, so the tone alarm isn’t sounding for every single alert in the weather radio transmitter signal range. This is beneficial for the overnight hours when most people are asleep, and don’t want to be awaken to alerts for weather that will have no impact on their location.

Around the Twin Cities, NOAA Weather Radio is broadcast 24/7 on a frequency of 162.55 MHz, and will transmit weather information and emergency alerts for the 7-county metro area and other counties highlighted within the yellow outline below.

Codes for programming your weather radio for specific counties are illustrated below. In Minnesota, the S.A.M.E. code will be 027XXX, where XXX is the county you designate. For example, for selecting Hennepin County alerts, the code is 027053. Many weather radios will allow you to program a handful of counties, if you choose. Some of newer weather radios have the county codes already built-in, so all you have to do is select the name of the county from the radio’s LCD display to make it easy and hassle-free.

Enjoy the remainder of the week! I will be monitoring the potential for severe weather during the upcoming weekend, so be sure to check back for updates as we get closer to the end of the week.

07.05.11 Norwood-Young America, MN

2011-07-06T07:49:00.004-05:00

Thunderstorms developed along a stationary front draped nearly over the Twin Cities metro area during the late afternoon into the evening hours.

Radar showing the thunderstorms over the metro. Loop is between 6 and 7:30 PM. Click to enlarge.

As I left work for the day around 5:30 PM, I checked RadarScope on my phone and saw storms popping right overhead. Walking out the door, rain was falling, and I noticed the billowing cumulonimbus clouds off in the distance towards the north from Wayzata. The storms over Anoka County produced a waterspout over Coon Lake at approximately 5:45 PM. Temperatures managed into get into the upper 80s despite the persistent cloud cover most of the day, so that provided the battle zone for the cool and warm air mass clash. Heading home, I decided to head out on an impromptu storm chase, and picked up on the storm cell going through Carver County since it would be a shorter drive. After stopping in Shakopee to pick up some dinner at Culver’s, I headed out on US-212 towards Norwood-Young America. Once I arrived in town around 7 PM, I took Carver County Highway 33 south of town where I caught up with the storm. It produced this rain shaft that was being reflected by the sun from behind. Even spotted a rainbow right next to it as I got a little bit closer. I’m glad no one reported this as a tornado, because it wasn’t rotating at all.

Another view of the rainbow with the rain behind it:

The storm didn’t seem to strengthen during the duration of the chase up to this point, and it was only producing heavy rains and some gusty winds in the core of the storm. With that in mind, I decided to call it a day, and headed towards Minnesota Highway 25, where I met up with US-169 in Belle Plaine. In Belle Plaine, I took the north US-169 exit towards home. Heading into Shakopee, I was welcomed back with a nice looking cumulonimbus cloud off to the east from US-169:

It was a fun, little unexpected chase. I love smaller storms such as this, because it’s easier to get better aquatinted with the road system in areas that I normally don't drive through since my mind is not distracted with extra tasks (observing wind readings, making sure video is working, playing around with the radio, submitting reports, etc.) during a severe weather situation. Who needs an atlas when you have all the local back roads stored in the head?!

Total Reports: 0 (no severe weather witnessed)